0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
25.1%
Overall HR/FB
8.34
FIP
7.2
xFIP
#2
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 71.2%
BRK 14.4%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 8 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (71.2% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
28.7%
82.3
5.6°
0
-2.7
Fastball Hard
26.9%
83.5
40.8°
1
+1.6
Cutter Hard
15.6%
86.8
41.7°
1
+4.5
Curveball Breaking
14.4%
78.8
25.3°
0
-1.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB25.1% 95
HR/9—
FIP8.34 100
xFIP7.2
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Sinker
Hard · 28.7% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle5.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches48
Fastball
Hard · 26.9% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle40.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches45
Cutter
Hard · 15.6% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.8 mph
Avg launch angle41.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches26
Curveball
Breaking · 14.4% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle25.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches24
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Ethan Pecko.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Citi Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.935
Wind
12 mph from WSW
Temp
79°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
3:10p
12
79°
+7
4:10p
13
80°
+6
5:10p
13
80°
+4
6:10p
11
80°
+1
7:10p
9
80°
-1
+3
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 11 mph from W
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
335ft
avg
CF
408ft
avg
RF
330ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
366ft
0 HRs allowed · deep
vs RHH → LF
354ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 330 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Ethan Pecko.
Common questions about Ethan Pecko
Is Ethan Pecko likely to give up a home run tonight?
Ethan Pecko pitches tonight (HOU @ NYM at Citi Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.