3
HRs allowed
12.0%
HR rate (pool)
24.4%
Overall HR/FB
7.52
FIP
6.35
xFIP
+1.17
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
28.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.1 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 112.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ethan Pecko.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
22.6%
82.9
10.3°
0
-3.7
Fastball Hard
20.8%
85.6
36.2°
3
+1.9
Sweeper Breaking
19.2%
81.9
27.5°
0
-2.6
Cutter Hard
19.1%
81.7
30.4°
1
+0.2
Curveball Breaking
12.9%
83.4
14.1°
1
-0.0
Changeup Offspeed
5.4%
78.5
5.0°
0
+2.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups25
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate12.0%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB24.4% 93
HR/9—
FIP7.52 99
xFIP6.35
FIP − xFIP+1.17 94
Barrel% allowed28.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 22.6% usage
-3.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches129
Fastball
Hard · 20.8% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle36.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches119
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.2% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle27.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches110
Cutter
Hard · 19.1% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle30.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches109
Curveball
Breaking · 12.9% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle14.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches74
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.4% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle5.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches31
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ethan Pecko.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.1 EV · 389 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
7
0
112.0
2026-09-05
9
1
105.1
2026-08-30
9
2
104.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ethan Pecko isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Ethan Pecko isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
7
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Ethan Pecko
How many home runs has Ethan Pecko allowed this season?
Ethan Pecko has allowed 3 home runs across 3 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Ethan Pecko?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Ethan Pecko include Francisco Lindor (1), Juan Soto (1), Ketel Marte (1).
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.