TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.36×

TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 94°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:10p

+0 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

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9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +0

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 31 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 21 · vs Lugo → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 82

1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nick Loftin +850 D ●●●○○

3 Vinnie Pasquantino +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 63

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +370 C ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes +850 D ●●●○○

3 George Springer +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 25.6% · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Scherzer Edge +350 0.211 · 91.3 · 9.9% 36.4% 25.6% F B O C+ 63

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Lugo +370 0.211 · 90.5 · 10.1% 18.2% 23.9% F B O C 58

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Scherzer Edge +330 0.212 · 93.2 · 11.1% 10.0% 16.8% F B O C+ 60

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Scherzer — 0.169 · 92.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Lugo Edge +850 0.124 · 86.8 · 4.3% 22.2% 13.8% F B O D 39

· KC Nick Loftin vs Scherzer +850 0.151 · 87.1 · 6.1% 20.0% 13.7% F B O D 47

· TOR George Springer vs Lugo +500 0.166 · 88.4 · 7.2% 20.0% 13.1% F B O D 47

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Scherzer Edge +475 0.141 · 89.6 · 8.0% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 48

· KC Salvador Perez vs Scherzer +400 0.152 · 88.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 46

· KC Michael Massey vs Scherzer Edge +575 0.166 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 47

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.160 · 90.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 47

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Scherzer Edge +850 0.117 · 88.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Lugo — 0.096 · 90.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Lugo Edge +850 0.112 · 85.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Lugo — 0.112 · 84.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· TOR Myles Straw vs Lugo — 0.114 · 85.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 36.9% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

13.6% 10.2% 20.7% 13.2% C 58 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

George Springer R

6.4% 7.8% 6.1% 6.8% D 47 +500

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.7% 17.7% 0.0% 11.1% D 47 —

152

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.1% 3.1% 5.8% 2.4% D 39 +850

172

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.3% 9.8% 1.8% 6.7% D 37 —

194

Ernie Clement R

2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 2.1% D 34 —

195

Myles Straw R

3.8% 0.0% 4.8% 3.1% D 34 —

196

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.8% 2.0% 4.0% 3.3% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.3% BRK 31.7% OFF 16.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.2% 12.0% 10.3% 11.3% C+ 63 +350

Jac Caglianone L Edge

12.4% 17.4% 10.8% 13.8% C+ 60 +330

Bobby Witt R

12.1% 9.3% 15.1% 11.5% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.3% 7.0% 7.3% 7.8% D 48 +475

Nick Loftin R

5.4% 3.3% 0.0% 4.2% D 47 +850

Michael Massey L Edge

7.5% 6.6% 1.7% 6.1% D 47 +575

Salvador Perez R

13.2% 6.3% 9.8% 10.0% D 46 +400

140

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.9% 7.3% 1.9% 5.4% D 41 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Jensen Caglianone Pasquantino Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +350 · 63

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 94°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

94°F

6:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · cross

92°F

7:10p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

90°F

8:10p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

9:10p

-4

↑

10 mph · in

85°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 94°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 58 C +370 WARM 29 0.211 90.5 10.1% 26.3%vs RHP 400 17.8% 18.2% 23.9% 26

2 George Springer 47 D +500 WARM 83 0.166 88.4 7.2% 20.4%vs RHP 395 11.2% 20.0% 13.1% 35

3 Jesús Sánchez 47 D — COOL 86 0.160 90.8 9.2% 17.0%vs RHP 398 9.3% 0.0% 10.0% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 39 D +850 WARM 152 0.124 86.8 4.3% 16.7%vs RHP 382 8.3% 22.2% 13.8% 33

5 Vladimir Guerrero 37 D — · 172 0.096 90.2 7.2% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 46

6 Ernie Clement 34 D — COOL 194 0.112 84.2 4.0% 6.0%vs RHP 376 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% 40

7 Myles Straw 34 D — · 195 0.114 85.9 4.9% 4.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 26

8 Andres Gimenez 33 D +850 WARM 196 0.112 85.7 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 18

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 63 C+ +350 WARM 9 0.211 91.3 9.9% 20.2%vs RHP 397 16.8% 36.4% 25.6% 31

2 Jac Caglianone 60 C+ +330 COOL 18 0.212 93.2 11.1% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.5% 10.0% 16.8% 32

3 Bobby Witt 50 C — COOL 59 0.169 92.3 10.0% 16.1%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 39

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 48 D +475 WARM 72 0.141 89.6 8.0% 14.1%vs RHP 398 10.9% 18.2% 10.2% 37

5 Nick Loftin 47 D +850 WARM 82 0.151 87.1 6.1% 11.8%vs RHP 397 9.5% 20.0% 13.7% 32

6 Michael Massey 47 D +575 WARM 85 0.166 89.6 7.4% 9.9%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 10.4% 15

7 Salvador Perez 46 D +400 WARM 90 0.152 88.7 9.4% 17.1%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 37

8 Isaac Collins 41 D +850 COOL 140 0.117 88.6 6.9% 7.5%vs RHP 394 5.2% 0.0% 7.9% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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