TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.22×

STL @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph in 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:10p

+0 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+11 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 9:10p window peaks +11

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 12 · vs Adams ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 56 · vs Liberatore → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Mason Adams RHP

leak 86

2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +370 C ●●○○○

2 Nolan Gorman +390 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 84

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +700 D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +290 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mickey Moniak +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Liberatore Edge +290 0.283 · 90.4 · 12.3% 22.2% 29.4% F B O C+ 69

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Liberatore +400 0.245 · 89.5 · 9.5% 9.1% 18.1% F B O C 57

· — Jordan Walker vs Adams +370 0.215 · 92.5 · 11.3% 8.3% 16.4% F B O C 58

· — Alec Burleson COOL vs Adams Edge +350 0.182 · 92.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Liberatore +700 0.159 · 84.3 · 6.6% 100.0% 12.7% F B O D 44

· — Nolan Gorman vs Adams Edge +390 0.127 · 89.3 · 9.6% 11.1% 11.0% F B O D 45

· COL Troy Johnston vs Liberatore — 0.120 · 89.6 · 4.8% 12.5% 8.6% F B O D 36

· COL Ezequiel Tovar HOT vs Liberatore Edge +575 0.123 · 87.5 · 7.8% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 41

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.155 · 87.6 · 8.7% 9.1% 10.1% F B O D 46

· — Nathan Church COOL vs Adams Edge +750 0.122 · 86.0 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 41

· — José Fermín COOL vs Adams +950 0.110 · 86.4 · 4.8% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 36

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Liberatore +750 0.188 · 85.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 46

· — Ivan Herrera COOL vs Adams +525 0.134 · 89.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.0% ← leak BRK 42.8% OFF 13.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.2% 16.1% 7.9% 16.1% C+ 69 +290

Mickey Moniak L

9.1% 17.5% 1.8% 9.4% C 57 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L

6.5% 2.0% 5.4% 5.2% D 46 +750

Willi Castro S Edge

10.3% 6.4% 4.6% 8.0% D 46 —

111

Tj Rumfield L

6.0% 3.3% 4.8% 5.0% D 44 +700

137

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.2% 7.1% 6.5% 6.6% D 41 +575

177

Troy Johnston L

2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 2.4% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.0% usage) carries Liberatore's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.1% ← leak BRK 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

14.2% 11.0% 13.4% C 58 +370

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.4% 10.1% 10.7% C 52 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

105

Nolan Gorman L Edge

13.9% 3.0% 9.6% D 45 +390

136

Nathan Church L Edge

6.6% 6.5% 5.9% D 41 +750

161

Ivan Herrera R

5.8% 4.7% 5.5% D 38 +525

179

José Fermín R

3.2% 1.6% 2.4% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Adams's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Adams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +290 · 69

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph in 86°F open

-3

↑

6 mph · in

86°F

6:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

7:10p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

78°F

8:10p

+11

↑

11 mph · out

75°F

9:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 86°F, wind 6 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 69 C+ +290 COOL 2 0.283 90.4 12.3% 32.1%vs LHP 412 23.5% 22.2% 29.4% 27

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C +400 COOL 32 0.245 89.5 9.5% 16.7%vs LHP 415 16.5% 9.1% 18.1% 36

3 Jake Mccarthy 46 D +750 · 89 0.188 85.3 7.0% 21.1%vs LHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 14.7% 48

4 Willi Castro 46 D — COOL 97 0.155 87.6 8.7% 13.8%vs LHP 409 11.0% 9.1% 10.1% 26

5 Tj Rumfield 44 D +700 HOT 111 0.159 84.3 6.6% 12.1%vs LHP 410 10.5% 100.0% 12.7% 35

6 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +575 HOT 137 0.123 87.5 7.8% 5.6%vs LHP 409 7.6% 11.1% 8.4% 18

7 Troy Johnston 36 D — WARM 177 0.120 89.6 4.8% 8.7%vs LHP 411 2.1% 12.5% 8.6% 21

vs Mason Adams · RHP 2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 58 C +370 · 31 0.215 92.5 11.3% 26.0%vs RHP 406 17.8% 8.3% 16.4% 33

2 Alec Burleson 52 C +350 COOL 52 0.182 92.1 10.1% 21.9%vs RHP 405 14.1% 0.0% 13.2% 36

3 Nolan Gorman 45 D +390 WARM 105 0.127 89.3 9.6% 14.6%vs RHP 405 9.0% 11.1% 11.0% 16

4 Nathan Church 41 D +750 COOL 136 0.122 86.0 7.6% 13.8%vs RHP 386 8.1% 9.1% 8.6% 39

5 Ivan Herrera 38 D +525 COOL 161 0.134 89.3 7.1% 18.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 37

6 José Fermín 36 D +950 COOL 179 0.110 86.4 4.8% 6.2%vs RHP 390 5.8% 8.3% 7.6% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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