TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CWS

Playable air · 1.06×

MIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Tristan Peters conv 30 · vs Bradley ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 27 · vs Kay → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 85

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tristan Peters +750 C ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Braden Montgomery +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 29

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee +525 C ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Luke Keaschall +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Bradley Edge +750 0.186 · 87.5 · 7.4% 38.5% 21.4% F B O C 52

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Bradley Edge +370 0.222 · 88.8 · 10.7% 25.0% 29.9% F B O C+ 62

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Kay Edge +525 0.183 · 88.1 · 5.6% 33.3% 20.3% F B O C 52

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Kay +390 0.229 · 92.5 · 10.1% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Bradley +390 0.237 · 90.6 · 11.3% 7.7% 15.5% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Bradley Edge +320 0.265 · 93.9 · 13.4% 0.0% 21.3% F B O C+ 65

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Kay Edge +330 0.169 · 89.8 · 9.7% 8.3% 12.6% F B O C 53

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Kay Edge +475 0.167 · 89.8 · 8.8% 9.1% 11.7% F B O C 51

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Bradley — 0.266 · 91.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Bradley Edge +750 0.138 · 89.0 · 6.1% 16.7% 10.1% F B O D 42

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Kay Edge +750 0.116 · 85.6 · 5.5% 16.7% 7.7% F B O D 40

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Bradley Edge +500 0.176 · 88.9 · 8.8% 9.1% 12.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Kay +575 0.156 · 87.8 · 7.9% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 47

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Kay Edge +850 0.102 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Bradley Edge +850 0.120 · 87.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Bradley +950 0.125 · 87.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kody Clemens L

9.5% 19.5% 12.1% 12.2% C+ 63 +390

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.0% 7.2% 9.1% 11.5% C 53 +330

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.3% 0.9% 0.9% 4.0% C 52 +525

Josh Bell S Edge

10.0% 12.2% 5.8% 9.5% C 51 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L

7.6% 8.3% 6.2% 7.5% D 47 +575

147

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.7% 2.8% 0.0% 3.7% D 40 +750

149

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.1% 5.7% 6.4% D 39 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.7% ← leak OFF 20.2% BRK 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.6% 14.3% 16.9% 19.5% C+ 65 +320

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.2% 14.9% 10.4% 12.3% C+ 62 +370

Miguel Vargas R

15.6% 12.8% 10.3% 13.7% C+ 61 +390

Randal Grichuk R

8.4% 25.0% 11.4% 12.0% C 57 —

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.9% C 52 +750

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.8% 4.8% 4.1% 8.8% D 49 +500

126

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 4.0% D 42 +750

157

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.0% 0.0% 4.3% 5.3% D 39 +850

163

Chase Meidroth R

4.0% 3.3% 5.2% 4.2% D 38 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.7% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Montgomery Peters Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tristan Peters +750 · 52

Colson Montgomery +370 · 62

Brooks Lee +525 · 52

Kody Clemens +390 · 63

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 63 C+ +390 · 10 0.229 92.5 10.1% 20.8%vs LHP 391 18.1% 25.0% 25.4% 33

2 Royce Lewis 53 C +330 COOL 45 0.169 89.8 9.7% 17.4%vs LHP 402 14.4% 8.3% 12.6% 39

3 Brooks Lee 52 C +525 HOT 47 0.183 88.1 5.6% 8.8%vs LHP 372 16.3% 33.3% 20.3% 45

4 Josh Bell 51 C +475 COOL 57 0.167 89.8 8.8% 13.2%vs LHP 407 11.6% 9.1% 11.7% 36

5 Trevor Larnach 47 D +575 WARM 84 0.156 87.8 7.9% 25.0%vs LHP 395 9.2% 10.0% 10.8% 27

6 Luke Keaschall 40 D +750 HOT 147 0.116 85.6 5.5% 2.9%vs LHP 378 7.4% 16.7% 7.7% 44

7 Victor Caratini 39 D +850 COOL 149 0.102 89.5 7.3% 11.8%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 7

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 65 C+ +320 COOL 3 0.265 93.9 13.4% 35.4%vs RHP 404 17.4% 0.0% 21.3% 22

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 62 C+ +370 COOL 12 0.222 88.8 10.7% 26.3%vs RHP 397 22.2% 25.0% 29.9% 24

3 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ +390 COOL 14 0.237 90.6 11.3% 17.3%vs RHP 393 20.3% 7.7% 15.5% 37

4 Randal Grichuk 57 C — COOL 33 0.266 91.1 10.6% 15.4%vs RHP 393 14.3% 0.0% 15.6% 8

5 Tristan Peters 52 C +750 WARM 49 0.186 87.5 7.4% 13.6%vs RHP 377 11.7% 38.5% 21.4% 34

6 Andrew Benintendi 49 D +500 · 66 0.176 88.9 8.8% 16.5%vs RHP 388 12.8% 9.1% 12.5% 30

7 Braden Montgomery 42 D +750 WARM 126 0.138 89.0 6.1% 18.5%vs RHP 390 7.7% 16.7% 10.1% 41

8 Sam Antonacci 39 D +850 COOL 157 0.120 87.2 7.0% 11.8%vs RHP 390 7.8% 0.0% 8.7% 37

9 Chase Meidroth 38 D +950 COOL 163 0.125 87.4 6.2% 14.3%vs RHP 379 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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