TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.48×

MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:40p

+13 ↑

7:40p

+12 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +13

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 37 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 23 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 24

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +280 B ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ — C+ ●●●●●

3 Alex Bregman +425 C ●●●●○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 13

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +475 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Garrett Mitchell +575 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Gasser +280 0.294 · 90.2 · 9.2% 41.7% 33.1% F B O B 73

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.201 · 89.1 · 8.4% 33.3% 25.9% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Gasser Edge +425 0.166 · 88.1 · 5.8% 33.3% 21.3% F B O C 52

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Boyd +475 0.225 · 92.4 · 11.6% 20.0% 26.4% F B O C+ 67

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Boyd Edge +320 0.195 · 92.0 · 11.3% 16.7% 28.5% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Michael Busch HOT vs Gasser +425 0.152 · 88.3 · 7.7% 25.0% 16.6% F B O C 52

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Gasser Edge +305 0.213 · 88.5 · 8.1% 16.7% 19.3% F B O C 59

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Boyd +575 0.150 · 92.9 · 10.8% 11.1% 9.7% F B O C 53

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Boyd +850 0.144 · 88.9 · 10.0% 10.0% 9.1% F B O C 51

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Boyd +750 0.172 · 90.2 · 8.6% 8.3% 9.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Gasser Edge +525 0.126 · 87.2 · 5.9% 33.3% 17.8% F B O D 47

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Boyd — 0.092 · 86.9 · 5.8% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Boyd Edge +700 0.129 · 88.6 · 6.6% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 46

· MIL William Contreras vs Boyd Edge +390 0.128 · 90.1 · 8.8% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 49

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Gasser Edge +950 0.094 · 85.9 · 2.8% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.3% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 26.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Jake Bauers L

14.7% 12.3% 12.5% 13.7% C+ 67 +475

Jackson Chourio R Edge

14.8% 12.1% 4.8% 12.6% C+ 64 +320

Garrett Mitchell L

14.8% 10.5% 5.4% 12.1% C 53 +575

Brice Turang L

8.4% 10.1% 1.5% 7.6% C 53 +750

Christian Yelich L

10.1% 8.6% 12.1% 10.0% C 51 +850

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

William Contreras R Edge

8.5% 8.9% 0.0% 7.7% D 49 +390

100

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.6% 5.4% 0.0% 4.5% D 46 +700

130

David Hamilton L

3.4% 5.9% 0.0% 3.5% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.3% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.2% ← leak BRK 25.2% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

12.1% 16.2% 12.0% 13.2% B 73 +280

Neutral · 4

Ian Happ S Edge

14.9% 13.4% 2.5% 11.3% C+ 61 —

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.7% 9.2% 11.1% 10.2% C 59 +305

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.8% 8.0% 7.9% 5.3% C 52 +425

Michael Busch L

12.2% 4.8% 2.0% 9.2% C 52 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.2% 3.8% 5.3% 5.4% D 47 +525

167

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong +280 · 73

Ian Happ — · 61

Alex Bregman +425 · 52

Jake Bauers +475 · 67

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 80°F open

+13

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

6:40p · peak

+13

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

7:40p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

8:40p

+11

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

9:40p

+11

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 80°F, wind 8 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 67 C+ +475 · 8 0.225 92.4 11.6% 23.1%vs LHP 401 19.1% 20.0% 26.4% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 64 C+ +320 · 13 0.195 92.0 11.3% 28.6%vs LHP 399 16.5% 16.7% 28.5% 38

3 Garrett Mitchell 53 C +575 WARM 46 0.150 92.9 10.8% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.4% 11.1% 9.7% 25

4 Brice Turang 53 C +750 COOL 49 0.172 90.2 8.6% 5.3%vs LHP 407 10.7% 8.3% 9.3% 33

5 Christian Yelich 51 C +850 WARM 61 0.144 88.9 10.0% 15.4%vs LHP 400 7.5% 10.0% 9.1% 31

6 William Contreras 49 D +390 · 70 0.128 90.1 8.8% 10.3%vs LHP 414 9.7% 9.1% 9.6% 37

7 Joey Ortiz 46 D +700 WARM 100 0.129 88.6 6.6% 11.1%vs LHP 391 6.7% 10.0% 9.7% 31

8 David Hamilton 41 D — COOL 130 0.092 86.9 5.8% 20.0%vs LHP 386 4.4% 11.1% 8.8% 30

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 73 B +280 · 2 0.294 90.2 9.2% 34.4%vs LHP 397 22.5% 41.7% 33.1% 39

2 Ian Happ 61 C+ — COOL 20 0.201 89.1 8.4% 15.4%vs LHP 402 18.0% 33.3% 25.9% 26

3 Seiya Suzuki 59 C +305 COOL 25 0.213 88.5 8.1% 30.4%vs LHP 406 17.4% 16.7% 19.3% 33

4 Alex Bregman 52 C +425 WARM 52 0.166 88.1 5.8% 15.2%vs LHP 390 12.6% 33.3% 21.3% 40

5 Michael Busch 52 C +425 HOT 53 0.152 88.3 7.7% 15.0%vs LHP 401 13.0% 25.0% 16.6% 24

6 Carson Kelly 47 D +525 WARM 83 0.126 87.2 5.9% 19.2%vs LHP 406 9.1% 33.3% 17.8% 23

7 Nico Hoerner 35 D +950 WARM 167 0.094 85.9 2.8% 6.9%vs LHP 381 5.9% 8.3% 8.8% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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