TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.40×

CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph in 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:10p

+2 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+15 ↑

10:10p

+15 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +15

Best of game Tristan Peters conv 31 · vs Blanco ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 28 · vs Burke → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Ronel Blanco RHP · HOU

leak 84

2.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.92 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tristan Peters +750 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery +350 B ●●●●○

3 Munetaka Murakami +280 B ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 74

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +500 C ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +525 D ●●●○○

3 Christian Walker +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: Match 31.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Blanco Edge +750 0.187 · 87.4 · 7.6% 38.5% 23.8% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ vs Blanco Edge +350 0.215 · 88.8 · 11.1% 25.0% 31.1% F B O B 70

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Burke +500 0.200 · 88.3 · 7.0% 27.3% 27.9% F B O C 57

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Blanco Edge +280 0.279 · 93.9 · 14.1% 7.7% 23.9% F B O B 75

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Blanco +350 0.241 · 90.7 · 12.0% 7.7% 23.8% F B O B 71

· HOU Christian Walker vs Burke +400 0.203 · 89.3 · 8.3% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 56

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Blanco Edge +475 0.183 · 89.0 · 9.4% 10.0% 14.3% F B O C 58

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Burke +625 0.172 · 89.3 · 9.2% 10.0% 12.7% F B O C 52

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Burke Edge +255 0.290 · 94.5 · 11.3% 0.0% 20.3% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Burke +525 0.157 · 88.0 · 6.5% 14.3% 21.7% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Burke +500 0.161 · 85.9 · 6.2% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 46

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Blanco Edge +750 0.132 · 89.0 · 6.5% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 48

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Burke — 0.126 · 85.9 · 4.1% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Blanco +950 0.128 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 48

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Burke +575 0.149 · 85.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 41

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Blanco Edge +850 0.124 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 48

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 35.8% BRK 35.2% OFF 28.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.0% 16.4% 14.3% 19.6% B 75 +280

Miguel Vargas R

16.3% 10.7% 12.8% 14.2% B 71 +350

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.2% 10.6% 14.9% 12.3% B 70 +350

Neutral · 2

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.3% 4.3% 2.1% 5.7% C+ 60 +750

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.3% 4.3% 5.1% 8.7% C 58 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 5.4% 3.4% 4.3% D 48 +950

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.2% D 48 +750

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.7% 4.5% 0.0% 5.2% D 48 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Blanco's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.9% ← leak BRK 36.7% OFF 2.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.2% 21.4% 9.2% 16.8% C+ 63 +255

Jeremy Peña R

6.1% 6.4% 9.5% 6.5% C 57 +500

Christian Walker R

8.1% 9.7% 12.8% 9.1% C 56 +400

Cam Smith R

9.0% 14.9% 16.1% 11.0% C 52 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Yainer Diaz R

6.6% 3.7% 6.2% 5.5% D 49 +525

Isaac Paredes R

6.6% 2.9% 1.8% 5.0% D 46 +500

126

Jose Altuve R

5.7% 4.5% 0.0% 4.8% D 41 +575

145

Christian Vazquez R

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.9% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Peters Peña Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Blanco fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Tristan Peters +750 · 60

Colson Montgomery +350 · 70

Jeremy Peña +500 · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph in 88°F retractable

↑

6 mph · in

88°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · cross

86°F

8:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

84°F

9:10p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

10:10p · peak

+15

↑

10 mph · out

81°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 88°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ronel Blanco · RHP 2.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.92 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 75 B +280 COOL 1 0.279 93.9 14.1% 39.7%vs RHP 404 18.3% 7.7% 23.9% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 71 B +350 COOL 4 0.241 90.7 12.0% 17.3%vs RHP 393 20.2% 7.7% 23.8% 31

3 Colson Montgomery ✶ 70 B +350 · 5 0.215 88.8 11.1% 25.7%vs RHP 398 22.1% 25.0% 31.1% 21

4 Tristan Peters 60 C+ +750 WARM 22 0.187 87.4 7.6% 15.1%vs RHP 377 12.1% 38.5% 23.8% 33

5 Andrew Benintendi 58 C +475 · 29 0.183 89.0 9.4% 17.5%vs RHP 388 13.3% 10.0% 14.3% 27

6 Chase Meidroth 48 D +950 · 76 0.128 87.7 6.6% 15.4%vs RHP 379 7.7% 0.0% 12.6% 37

7 Braden Montgomery 48 D +750 WARM 78 0.132 89.0 6.5% 16.0%vs RHP 390 6.1% 8.3% 10.1% 38

8 Sam Antonacci 48 D +850 COOL 79 0.124 87.3 7.2% 12.3%vs RHP 390 8.1% 0.0% 9.5% 31

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +255 COOL 15 0.290 94.5 11.3% 26.2%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 30

2 Jeremy Peña 57 C +500 WARM 31 0.200 88.3 7.0% 30.0%vs RHP 387 16.9% 27.3% 27.9% 23

3 Christian Walker 56 C +400 · 35 0.203 89.3 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP 391 17.2% 8.3% 16.0% 33

4 Cam Smith 52 C +625 COOL 54 0.172 89.3 9.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.5% 10.0% 12.7% 22

5 Yainer Diaz 49 D +525 HOT 71 0.157 88.0 6.5% 29.0%vs RHP 392 10.5% 14.3% 21.7% 24

6 Isaac Paredes 46 D +500 COOL 98 0.161 85.9 6.2% 17.2%vs RHP 377 11.5% 7.7% 11.6% 35

7 Jose Altuve 41 D +575 WARM 126 0.149 85.4 6.0% 20.4%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 34

8 Christian Vazquez 38 D — WARM 145 0.126 85.9 4.1% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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