TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.92×

SEA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph cross 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:45p

-5 ↑

7:45p

-5 ↑

8:45p

-5 ↑

9:45p

-5 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -5 FIT

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 22 · vs Woo ⟷ Cal Raleigh conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 58

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●●○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +425 D ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +850 D ●○○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 35

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cal Raleigh +370 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +625 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 16.1% · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Proxy +370 0.182 · 89.8 · 14.7% 41.7% 16.1% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Proxy +525 0.220 · 91.2 · 12.3% 8.3% 12.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Woo Edge +575 0.156 · 89.8 · 8.5% 30.0% 13.6% F B O D 43

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Proxy +625 0.184 · 90.6 · 7.5% 23.1% 17.4% F B O D 45

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Woo Edge +425 0.211 · 89.8 · 9.7% 15.4% 11.9% F B O D 49

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Proxy +575 0.157 · 89.9 · 9.5% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Proxy +950 0.140 · 88.4 · 4.7% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 33

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Woo +850 0.164 · 86.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Woo +800 0.136 · 83.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Woo — 0.151 · 87.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 36

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Proxy +950 0.127 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Proxy +850 0.097 · 87.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 65.8% ← leak BRK 28.0% OFF 6.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.3% 15.5% 11.4% 12.3% D 49 +425

113

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.5% 8.4% 6.7% 9.6% D 43 +575

159

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.2% 6.5% 10.9% 5.3% D 36 +850

162

Andruw Monasterio R

6.9% 6.1% 10.5% 6.9% D 36 —

192

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% D 30 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.8% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Woo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph cross 62°F open

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

65°F

6:45p · peak

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

64°F

7:45p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

63°F

8:45p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

63°F

9:45p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

62°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 62°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 55 C +370 HOT 56 0.182 89.8 14.7% 14.6% 385 16.2% 41.7% 16.1% 21

2 Dominic Canzone 52 C +525 COOL 73 0.220 91.2 12.3% 21.7% 404 15.2% 8.3% 12.6% 30

3 Randy Arozarena 45 D +625 COOL 125 0.184 90.6 7.5% 20.0% 386 15.1% 23.1% 17.4% 29

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +575 WARM 138 0.157 89.9 9.5% 15.5% 404 15.7% 7.7% 8.3% 31

5 Cole Young 33 D +950 COOL 195 0.140 88.4 4.7% 11.0% 383 11.5% 8.3% 7.0% 29

6 J.P. Crawford 30 D +950 WARM 201 0.127 87.8 6.1% 14.1% 388 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 9

7 Josh Naylor 27 D +850 COOL 208 0.097 87.3 4.5% 7.7% 392 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% 37

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 49 D +425 COOL 68 0.211 89.8 9.7% 16.0%vs RHP 406 16.4% 15.4% 11.9% 34

2 Jarren Duran 43 D +575 · 113 0.156 89.8 8.5% 27.6%vs RHP 399 14.2% 30.0% 13.6% 30

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 36 D +850 COOL 159 0.164 86.3 6.3% 14.5%vs RHP 382 12.0% 0.0% 9.3% 43

4 Andruw Monasterio 36 D — COOL 162 0.151 87.9 7.2% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 6.9% 33

5 Caleb Durbin 30 D +800 COOL 192 0.136 83.6 4.4% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.5% 0.0% 8.1% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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