TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TB

Playable air · 1.08×

NYM @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Juan Soto conv 38 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Manaea → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 84

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Francisco Lindor +425 C ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 77

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +750 C ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Juan Soto ✶ vs Peralta Edge +320 0.260 · 92.7 · 9.4% 50.0% 25.5% F B O C+ 64

· TB Junior Caminero vs Manaea Edge +255 0.254 · 93.0 · 11.8% 15.4% 20.6% F B O C+ 67

· TB Francisco Lindor COOL vs Peralta Edge +425 0.191 · 91.1 · 7.7% 16.7% 15.6% F B O C 53

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Manaea +750 0.143 · 91.1 · 10.2% 16.7% 12.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Bo Bichette vs Peralta +700 0.127 · 89.7 · 6.2% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 44

· TB Carson Benge COOL vs Peralta Edge +750 0.145 · 88.9 · 6.8% 16.7% 12.0% F B O D 46

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Manaea — 0.148 · 87.9 · 6.7% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 46

· TB Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Peralta +625 0.165 · 89.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 47

· TB Jared Young COOL vs Peralta Edge +575 0.173 · 89.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 46

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Manaea Edge +425 0.162 · 90.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 46

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Manaea Edge +750 0.169 · 85.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 42

· TB Marcus Semien COOL vs Peralta +625 0.130 · 86.5 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· TB Brett Baty vs Peralta Edge +850 0.117 · 89.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Manaea — 0.107 · 86.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· TB A.J. Ewing COOL vs Peralta Edge +850 0.114 · 89.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Manaea Edge +850 0.098 · 85.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Manaea — 0.054 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 23

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Manaea Edge +950 0.072 · 85.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.8% ← leak BRK 30.7% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Junior Caminero R Edge

15.4% 11.4% 7.4% 13.0% C+ 67 +255

Jonathan Aranda L

10.2% 12.7% 5.8% 9.9% C 51 +750

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.7% 10.6% 3.8% 7.1% D 46 +425

101

Cedric Mullins L

4.0% 2.8% 7.7% 4.2% D 46 —

118

Jonny Deluca R Edge

4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 3.6% D 42 +750

151

Richie Palacios L

4.5% 1.6% 3.0% 3.5% D 38 —

160

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 36 +850

178

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 33 +950

209

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.8% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 23.6% OFF 22.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.1% 12.5% 4.8% 14.3% C+ 64 +320

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.6% 6.8% 5.9% 9.5% C 53 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

15.5% 15.8% 16.0% 15.7% D 47 +625

Jared Young L Edge

6.2% 6.2% 12.9% 7.2% D 46 +575

Carson Benge L Edge

6.5% 8.2% 7.6% 7.1% D 46 +750

109

Bo Bichette R

5.0% 9.9% 0.0% 6.0% D 44 +700

122

Marcus Semien R

8.7% 1.9% 6.2% 6.2% D 42 +625

123

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 14.8% 3.8% 8.9% D 42 +850

139

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.3% 11.5% 0.0% 7.1% D 39 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Soto Lindor Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +320 · 64

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.08× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 67 C+ +255 WARM 9 0.254 93.0 11.8% 33.3%vs LHP 414 25.4% 15.4% 20.6% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 51 C +750 · 57 0.143 91.1 10.2% 8.7%vs LHP 390 11.7% 16.7% 12.0% 33

3 Yandy Diaz 46 D +425 · 89 0.162 90.8 8.6% 20.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 42

4 Cedric Mullins 46 D — WARM 101 0.148 87.9 6.7% 4.2%vs LHP 387 12.0% 10.0% 9.3% 27

5 Jonny Deluca 42 D +750 WARM 118 0.169 85.7 6.2% 11.8%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 32

6 Richie Palacios 38 D — COOL 151 0.107 86.0 6.1% 6.7% 398 3.9% 0.0% 8.7% 26

7 Nick Fortes 36 D +850 COOL 160 0.098 85.2 4.9% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.7% 8

8 Taylor Walls 33 D +950 COOL 178 0.072 85.5 4.6% 3.7%vs LHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 7.4% 23

9 Chandler Simpson 23 D — COOL 209 0.054 83.8 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 45

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 64 C+ +320 WARM 14 0.260 92.7 9.4% 30.4%vs RHP 401 20.2% 50.0% 25.5% 6

2 Francisco Lindor 53 C +425 COOL 48 0.191 91.1 7.7% 15.7%vs RHP 396 13.5% 16.7% 15.6% 35

3 Francisco Alvarez 47 D +625 COOL 82 0.165 89.9 9.9% 27.5%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 15

4 Jared Young 46 D +575 COOL 95 0.173 89.7 6.7% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.7% 0.0% 12.6% 32

5 Carson Benge 46 D +750 COOL 97 0.145 88.9 6.8% 14.7%vs RHP 396 10.7% 16.7% 12.0% 34

6 Bo Bichette 44 D +700 WARM 109 0.127 89.7 6.2% 11.4%vs RHP 385 9.8% 18.2% 11.4% 30

7 Marcus Semien 42 D +625 COOL 122 0.130 86.5 6.2% 15.9%vs RHP 391 10.6% 0.0% 9.0% 33

8 Brett Baty 42 D +850 WARM 123 0.117 89.9 7.6% 13.1%vs RHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% 16

9 A.J. Ewing 39 D +850 COOL 139 0.114 89.3 6.7% 10.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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