TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

PHI @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph slight_out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:40p

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conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +3

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 26 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Gabriel Moreno conv 15 · vs Luzardo → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 19

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +575 C ●●●○○

3 Bryson Stott +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 13

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Gabriel Moreno +850 D ●●○○○

2 Tim Tawa +950 D ●●○○○

3 Nolan Arenado +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez +350 0.282 · 92.5 · 11.6% 25.0% 26.6% F B O C+ 63

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Rodriguez +575 0.237 · 90.4 · 9.3% 16.7% 16.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Luzardo Edge +850 0.164 · 89.4 · 7.2% 16.7% 12.4% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.162 · 91.1 · 8.2% 15.4% 9.1% F B O D 38

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Luzardo Edge +750 0.192 · 84.9 · 6.4% 8.3% 12.5% F B O D 39

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Luzardo +850 0.235 · 91.7 · 8.8% 7.7% 12.1% F B O D 47

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Luzardo +475 0.197 · 90.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Rodriguez +950 0.145 · 89.2 · 6.6% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 36

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.118 · 87.4 · 6.5% 7.7% 5.8% F B O D 30

· PHI J.T. Realmuto HOT vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.136 · 90.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 31

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.137 · 87.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 28

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.155 · 89.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.135 · 90.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· PHI Trea Turner vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.138 · 88.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.119 · 87.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.086 · 87.2 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.0% ← leak OFF 26.7% BRK 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L

16.5% 27.3% 15.2% 17.2% C+ 63 +350

Bryce Harper L

12.5% 6.8% 12.1% 11.2% C 53 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

144

Brandon Marsh L

6.7% 3.6% 14.7% 8.4% D 39 —

161

Bryson Stott L

7.3% 4.5% 3.6% 5.6% D 36 +950

163

Trea Turner R Edge

7.9% 2.3% 4.7% 6.2% D 36 +750

168

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.4% 10.5% 6.5% 5.6% D 35 +850

184

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

4.0% 4.0% 7.0% 4.8% D 31 +850

207

Justin Crawford L

1.8% 0.0% 1.2% 1.3% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.0% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.6% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 18.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L

12.4% 13.7% 8.5% 11.9% D 47 +850

120

Ketel Marte

13.9% 7.8% 3.5% 10.1% D 42 +475

140

Nolan Arenado R Edge

9.4% 1.8% 5.0% 6.4% D 39 +750

148

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

8.2% 7.4% 8.3% 8.0% D 38 +850

150

Tim Tawa R Edge

9.8% 11.1% 12.0% 10.4% D 38 +950

193

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

6.9% 8.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 30 +950

198

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 2.6% 1.3% 3.3% D 28 +950

203

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.9% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.6% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +350 · 63

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph slight_out 94°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

93°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

92°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

91°F

8:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

90°F

9:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

89°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 94°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.52 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 63 C+ +350 COOL 16 0.282 92.5 11.6% 35.3%vs LHP 403 22.7% 25.0% 26.6% 35

2 Bryce Harper 53 C +575 · 47 0.237 90.4 9.3% 11.8%vs LHP 402 18.8% 16.7% 16.3% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 39 D — COOL 144 0.155 89.3 8.1% 17.6%vs LHP 391 11.4% 0.0% 8.3% 23

4 Bryson Stott 36 D +950 COOL 161 0.145 89.2 6.6% 11.1%vs LHP 385 7.9% 9.1% 7.1% 28

5 Trea Turner 36 D +750 · 163 0.138 88.3 7.0% 9.1%vs LHP 392 12.4% 0.0% 6.6% 35

6 Alec Bohm 35 D +850 COOL 168 0.135 90.4 6.6% 16.2%vs LHP 397 10.2% 0.0% 7.2% 32

7 J.T. Realmuto 31 D +850 HOT 184 0.136 90.0 6.1% 3.9%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 27

8 Justin Crawford 24 D — COOL 207 0.086 87.2 3.2% 3.2% 382 2.0% 0.0% 5.6% 27

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 47 D +850 · 87 0.235 91.7 8.8% 16.1%vs LHP 402 13.4% 7.7% 12.1% 32

2 Ketel Marte 42 D +475 · 120 0.197 90.2 8.1% 32.1%vs LHP 409 15.1% 0.0% 16.2% 0

3 Nolan Arenado 39 D +750 COOL 140 0.192 84.9 6.4% 25.0%vs LHP 389 14.8% 8.3% 12.5% 31

4 Gabriel Moreno 38 D +850 WARM 148 0.164 89.4 7.2% 15.4%vs LHP 401 9.9% 16.7% 12.4% 31

5 Tim Tawa 38 D +950 WARM 150 0.162 91.1 8.2% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.8% 15.4% 9.1% 32

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 30 D +950 COOL 193 0.118 87.4 6.5% 0.0%vs LHP 415 4.2% 7.7% 5.8% 23

7 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D +950 COOL 198 0.137 87.4 4.6% 20.7%vs LHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 8.5% 42

8 Geraldo Perdomo 26 D — COOL 203 0.119 87.4 4.3% 3.7%vs LHP 383 6.5% 0.0% 6.3% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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