TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.16×

TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+7 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +7

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 34 · vs Williams ⟷ Angel Martinez conv 6 · vs Miles → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 100

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +475 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●●●○

3 George Springer +625 D ●●●○○

FADE Spencer Miles RHP · TOR

leak 71

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

2 Patrick Bailey +750 D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 33.8% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Williams +475 0.216 · 90.4 · 12.4% 33.3% 33.8% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes HOT vs Williams Edge +950 0.125 · 86.9 · 5.4% 33.3% 14.4% F B O D 38

· TOR George Springer vs Williams +625 0.167 · 88.3 · 8.8% 22.2% 18.4% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Miles Edge — 0.186 · 87.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Miles Edge +750 0.117 · 90.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 32

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Williams Edge +750 0.162 · 90.8 · 11.3% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 45

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Miles Edge +500 0.161 · 91.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 34

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Williams — 0.093 · 90.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Williams +950 0.113 · 84.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 31

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Williams — 0.114 · 85.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 32

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Miles Edge +475 0.150 · 89.5 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Miles Edge +700 0.128 · 87.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Williams Edge +950 0.114 · 85.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Miles Edge +950 0.115 · 86.8 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Miles Edge — 0.060 · 83.9 · 1.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 50.4% FB 49.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

10.4% 13.7% 13.4% C+ 61 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

George Springer R

7.1% 6.6% 6.7% D 46 +625

105

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

18.0% 10.8% 11.2% D 45 +750

147

Nathan Lukes L Edge

3.3% 1.2% 2.5% D 38 +950

176

Vladimir Guerrero R

8.5% 6.6% 6.5% D 33 —

181

Myles Straw R

0.0% 3.9% 3.3% D 32 —

185

Andres Gimenez L Edge

2.1% 3.9% 3.4% D 31 +950

186

Ernie Clement R

2.2% 2.3% 2.2% D 31 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.6% ← leak BRK 41.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

164

Angel Martinez S Edge

7.3% 14.0% 7.6% D 35 —

170

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.7% 6.5% 6.2% D 34 +500

180

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.4% 4.3% 6.4% D 32 +750

187

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.0% 3.1% 4.2% D 31 +700

190

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — D 30 +475

199

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.6% 4.2% 3.1% D 28 +950

211

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 1.2% 0.5% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.6% usage) carries Miles's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto +475 · 61

George Springer +625 · 46

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:40p

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

8:40p

↑

8 mph · out

81°F

9:40p

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 84°F, wind 9 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 61 C+ +475 WARM 18 0.216 90.4 12.4% 26.3%vs RHP 400 18.3% 33.3% 33.8% 35

2 George Springer 46 D +625 · 90 0.167 88.3 8.8% 20.8%vs RHP 395 11.5% 22.2% 18.4% 32

3 Jesús Sánchez 45 D +750 · 105 0.162 90.8 11.3% 17.8%vs RHP 398 9.6% 0.0% 10.7% 12

4 Nathan Lukes 38 D +950 HOT 147 0.125 86.9 5.4% 17.0%vs RHP 382 8.6% 33.3% 14.4% 29

5 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — COOL 176 0.093 90.1 8.6% 9.8%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 31

6 Myles Straw 32 D — COOL 181 0.114 85.8 6.2% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 24

7 Andres Gimenez 31 D +950 COOL 185 0.114 85.6 6.3% 10.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 23

8 Ernie Clement 31 D +950 COOL 186 0.113 84.2 5.0% 6.1%vs RHP 376 7.1% 0.0% 9.2% 35

vs Spencer Miles · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 35 D — COOL 164 0.186 87.5 5.8% 20.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 28

2 Chase Delauter 34 D +500 WARM 170 0.161 91.4 5.2% 20.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 17

3 Patrick Bailey 32 D +750 · 180 0.117 90.5 5.5% 15.0%vs RHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 11.3% 14

4 Travis Bazzana 31 D +700 COOL 187 0.128 87.9 4.5% 14.5%vs RHP 396 8.9% 0.0% 7.8% 34

5 Jose Ramirez 30 D +475 COOL 190 0.150 89.5 4.5% 7.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 37

6 Brayan Rocchio 28 D +950 COOL 199 0.115 86.8 3.7% 10.6%vs RHP 384 7.0% 0.0% 7.4% 32

7 Steven Kwan 18 D — WARM 211 0.060 83.9 1.5% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.4% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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