TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

DET @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 27 · vs Melton ⟷ Hao-Yu Lee conv 13 · vs Morris → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 79

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +525 D ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●○○○

3 Luke Keaschall +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Morris RHP · MIN

leak 4

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.78 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hao-Yu Lee +575 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +525 D ●○○○○

3 Spencer Torkelson +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Melton Edge +400 0.223 · 92.4 · 8.5% 16.7% 14.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Melton Edge +525 0.191 · 88.1 · 5.0% 33.3% 21.3% F B O D 45

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Morris +575 0.145 · 89.6 · 5.9% 18.2% 7.6% F B O D 38

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Melton +750 0.117 · 85.4 · 4.7% 16.7% 6.5% F B O D 32

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Melton Edge +525 0.165 · 89.7 · 7.6% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 41

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Melton Edge +700 0.157 · 87.6 · 6.8% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 39

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Morris +525 0.221 · 88.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 44

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Morris +500 0.183 · 89.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Melton +525 0.163 · 89.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Morris Edge — 0.146 · 89.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Morris Edge +625 0.141 · 88.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Morris Edge — 0.100 · 85.7 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 24

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Morris +750 0.122 · 86.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 77.8% ← leak OFF 11.0% BRK 9.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

108

Dillon Dingler R

11.8% 6.4% 8.2% 10.2% D 44 +525

128

Spencer Torkelson R

13.0% 12.0% 10.7% 12.3% D 41 +500

152

Hao-Yu Lee R

11.9% 3.7% 5.3% 8.6% D 38 +575

174

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.9% 1.4% 7.3% 7.3% D 34 +625

177

Colt Keith L Edge

7.3% 3.0% 15.2% 7.6% D 33 —

188

Gleyber Torres R

8.2% 4.5% 4.7% 6.9% D 31 +750

205

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (77.8% usage) carries Morris's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.2% 18.7% 12.5% 11.8% C 51 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

103

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.7% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% D 45 +525

127

Josh Bell S Edge

10.2% 11.7% 5.9% 9.5% D 41 +525

132

Royce Lewis R

13.4% 6.3% 9.1% 10.9% D 41 +525

141

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.8% 8.6% 4.3% 7.4% D 39 +700

183

Luke Keaschall R

4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 32 +750

191

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.1% 5.7% 6.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brooks Lee +525 · 45

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 82°F open

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

81°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

9:40p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 82°F, wind 4 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Morris · RHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.78 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 44 D +525 COOL 108 0.221 88.4 6.4% 27.9%vs RHP 398 18.3% 0.0% 12.2% 22

2 Spencer Torkelson 41 D +500 COOL 128 0.183 89.3 7.0% 23.6%vs RHP 394 13.7% 0.0% 9.7% 12

3 Hao-Yu Lee 38 D +575 WARM 152 0.145 89.6 5.9% 22.7%vs RHP 393 18.8% 18.2% 7.6% 27

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 34 D +625 WARM 174 0.141 88.2 5.4% 9.8%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.2% 38

5 Colt Keith 33 D — HOT 177 0.146 89.0 5.5% 13.2%vs RHP 385 6.4% 0.0% 7.8% 17

6 Gleyber Torres 31 D +750 · 188 0.122 86.2 5.3% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.9% 0.0% 6.2% 33

7 Zach Mckinstry 24 D — COOL 205 0.100 85.7 3.0% 5.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 20

vs Troy Melton · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 51 C +400 WARM 60 0.223 92.4 8.5% 19.5%vs RHP 391 17.6% 16.7% 14.1% 31

2 Brooks Lee 45 D +525 HOT 103 0.191 88.1 5.0% 22.9%vs RHP 372 16.7% 33.3% 21.3% 37

3 Josh Bell 41 D +525 COOL 127 0.165 89.7 7.6% 19.7%vs RHP 407 11.0% 9.1% 10.5% 32

4 Royce Lewis 41 D +525 COOL 132 0.163 89.8 8.2% 16.1%vs RHP 400 13.8% 0.0% 8.7% 36

5 Trevor Larnach 39 D +700 WARM 141 0.157 87.6 6.8% 15.5%vs RHP 395 9.4% 10.0% 9.5% 23

6 Luke Keaschall 32 D +750 HOT 183 0.117 85.4 4.7% 9.3%vs RHP 378 7.6% 16.7% 6.5% 40

7 Victor Caratini 30 D — COOL 191 0.102 89.5 6.3% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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