TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.27×

STL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +9

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 28 · vs Lauer ⟷ Max Muncy conv 31 · vs McGreevy → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 83

2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Nolan Gorman — C ●●●○○

3 Nathan Church +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 74

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +235 C+ ●●○○○

3 Tommy Edman +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs McGreevy Edge +350 0.243 · 90.4 · 11.2% 37.5% 23.9% F B O C+ 66

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Lauer Edge +290 0.211 · 92.4 · 11.9% 25.0% 30.0% F B O C+ 67

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Lauer — 0.132 · 89.4 · 10.2% 20.0% 14.4% F B O C 51

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs McGreevy Edge +235 0.249 · 93.4 · 12.4% 9.1% 18.3% F B O C+ 65

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Lauer +425 0.188 · 92.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Lauer +700 0.127 · 85.8 · 8.1% 11.1% 9.2% F B O D 46

· LAD Tommy Edman vs McGreevy Edge +700 0.137 · 87.9 · 7.5% 12.5% 7.8% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs McGreevy +525 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.3% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 48

· STL José Fermín vs Lauer Edge +850 0.116 · 86.3 · 5.1% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs McGreevy Edge +475 0.157 · 89.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs McGreevy +475 0.146 · 89.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 43

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Lauer Edge +400 0.132 · 89.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs McGreevy Edge +525 0.129 · 88.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.9% ← leak BRK 20.0% OFF 15.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.0% 11.5% 17.5% 13.5% C+ 67 +290

Alec Burleson L

11.6% 10.5% 10.2% 11.0% C 57 +425

Nolan Gorman L

14.3% 3.1% 6.1% 9.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

102

Nathan Church L

6.9% 6.7% 4.3% 6.2% D 46 +700

111

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.0% 4.2% 6.5% 5.4% D 43 +400

129

José Fermín R Edge

3.4% 1.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 41 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.9% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 27.4% OFF 19.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Max Muncy L Edge

15.1% 13.4% 8.1% 13.0% C+ 66 +350

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

18.9% 11.0% 14.8% 15.8% C+ 65 +235

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

7.9% 4.0% 7.5% 7.0% D 48 +525

Freddie Freeman L Edge

8.5% 7.8% 7.5% 8.2% D 47 +475

110

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.4% 9.6% 8.8% 9.3% D 43 +475

116

Tommy Edman S Edge

4.3% 7.1% 7.9% 5.7% D 43 +700

134

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.8% 2.9% 1.2% 5.5% D 41 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Gorman Muncy Ohtani

Legend

attack side — vs Lauer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy +350 · 66

Jordan Walker +290 · 67

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph out 73°F open

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

70°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

69°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

68°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

66°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 73°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 67 C+ +290 COOL 7 0.211 92.4 11.9% 34.6%vs LHP 406 17.6% 25.0% 30.0% 34

2 Alec Burleson 57 C +425 COOL 33 0.188 92.1 10.8% 9.4%vs LHP 405 14.5% 0.0% 11.9% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 51 C — WARM 59 0.132 89.4 10.2% 11.1%vs LHP 405 9.5% 20.0% 14.4% 12

4 Nathan Church 46 D +700 COOL 102 0.127 85.8 8.1% 16.7%vs LHP 386 8.4% 11.1% 9.2% 28

5 Ivan Herrera 43 D +400 COOL 111 0.132 89.2 7.5% 19.2%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 32

6 José Fermín 41 D +850 WARM 129 0.116 86.3 5.1% 14.3%vs LHP 390 6.2% 10.0% 8.8% 36

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 66 C+ +350 COOL 10 0.243 90.4 11.2% 25.5%vs RHP 411 21.3% 37.5% 23.9% 46

2 Shohei Ohtani 65 C+ +235 COOL 12 0.249 93.4 12.4% 25.7%vs RHP 407 18.9% 9.1% 18.3% 29

3 Mookie Betts 48 D +525 COOL 77 0.165 89.9 8.3% 15.6%vs RHP 389 10.6% 9.1% 11.1% 42

4 Freddie Freeman 47 D +475 COOL 88 0.157 89.7 8.9% 13.8%vs RHP 398 9.8% 0.0% 10.2% 35

5 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +475 COOL 110 0.146 89.6 9.5% 14.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 23

6 Tommy Edman 43 D +700 · 116 0.137 87.9 7.5% 5.7%vs RHP 398 8.3% 12.5% 7.8% 28

7 Kyle Tucker 41 D +525 COOL 134 0.129 88.7 7.3% 10.5%vs RHP 392 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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