TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.31×

SF @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +6

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 31 · vs Skenes ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 28 · vs Webb → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 47

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +350 C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +500 D ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 41

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +475 C ●●●●○

2 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●●○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 11.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 35.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Skenes Edge +350 0.234 · 92.8 · 9.0% 35.7% 25.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Webb Edge +475 0.221 · 95.5 · 10.2% 30.0% 26.4% F B O C 55

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Webb Edge +500 0.225 · 91.1 · 8.4% 22.2% 24.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Skenes Edge +500 0.190 · 92.5 · 9.3% 18.2% 18.1% F B O D 48

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Skenes Edge +750 0.147 · 86.8 · 6.4% 18.2% 14.1% F B O D 36

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Webb — 0.072 · 86.9 · 4.0% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Webb Edge +850 0.158 · 90.7 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Webb Edge +750 0.136 · 86.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Skenes Edge — 0.132 · 87.3 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Webb — 0.089 · 86.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak OFF 23.9% BRK 23.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.7% 7.2% 10.2% 11.0% C 55 +350

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.3% 13.9% 12.2% 11.9% D 48 +500

158

Drew Gilbert L Edge

6.2% 0.0% 7.1% 5.5% D 36 +750

197

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.7% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 19.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L Edge

18.6% 12.5% 18.2% 17.3% C 55 +475

Brandon Lowe L Edge

15.5% 9.8% 8.2% 12.1% C 51 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

143

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.7% 7.7% 11.8% 10.9% D 39 +850

173

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

6.6% 9.4% 5.7% 6.7% D 34 +750

202

Nick Gonzales R

2.5% 0.0% 4.4% 2.8% D 26 —

204

Jared Triolo R

2.7% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7% D 25 —

206

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.4% 0.0% 1.1% 2.0% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Gilbert Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +350 · 55

Oneil Cruz +475 · 55

Brandon Lowe +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph out 87°F open

↑

7 mph · out

88°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

87°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

85°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 87°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 55 C +350 WARM 40 0.234 92.8 9.0% 27.6%vs RHP 399 20.2% 35.7% 25.5% 37

2 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +500 WARM 75 0.190 92.5 9.3% 19.2%vs RHP 399 19.1% 18.2% 18.1% 25

3 Drew Gilbert 36 D +750 HOT 158 0.147 86.8 6.4% 16.7%vs RHP 394 7.1% 18.2% 14.1% 22

4 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D — WARM 197 0.132 87.3 4.4% 10.3%vs RHP 382 5.6% 0.0% 6.9% 33

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 55 C +475 COOL 39 0.221 95.5 10.2% 39.4%vs RHP 413 24.2% 30.0% 26.4% 23

2 Brandon Lowe 51 C +500 COOL 58 0.225 91.1 8.4% 27.4%vs RHP 390 17.1% 22.2% 24.1% 18

3 Bryan Reynolds 39 D +850 COOL 143 0.158 90.7 8.0% 15.2%vs RHP 409 10.4% 0.0% 8.7% 35

4 Spencer Horwitz 34 D +750 COOL 173 0.136 86.9 6.3% 13.9%vs RHP 395 9.3% 0.0% 7.3% 29

5 Nick Gonzales 26 D — COOL 202 0.089 86.1 4.1% 9.8%vs RHP 397 6.3% 0.0% 6.7% 27

6 Jared Triolo 25 D — COOL 204 0.072 86.9 4.0% 8.3%vs RHP 409 2.6% 10.0% 6.6% 29

7 Jake Mangum 24 D — COOL 206 0.086 85.5 3.4% 10.0%vs RHP 393 4.4% 0.0% 6.7% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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