TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.27×

SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +8

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 23 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 33 · vs Vásquez → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 93

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ty France +500 C+ ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis — C ●●○○○

FADE Randy Vásquez RHP · SD

leak 68

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Bleday +330 C ●●●○○

3 Tyler Stephenson +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Vásquez +370 0.222 · 90.1 · 11.4% 38.5% 27.3% F B O C+ 65

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Lodolo +425 0.179 · 90.7 · 10.2% 25.0% 21.4% F B O C+ 60

· SD Ty France COOL vs Lodolo Edge +500 0.218 · 91.9 · 9.6% 16.7% 25.1% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Vásquez Edge +330 0.211 · 88.6 · 9.8% 25.0% 14.2% F B O C 55

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Vásquez +425 0.177 · 91.1 · 11.1% 16.7% 20.5% F B O C 55

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Vásquez +500 0.206 · 88.4 · 10.3% 0.0% 26.8% F B O C 52

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Lodolo Edge — 0.157 · 92.8 · 10.7% 0.0% 26.3% F B O C 52

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Lodolo Edge +280 0.184 · 90.4 · 9.3% 8.3% 13.4% F B O C 56

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Vásquez Edge +330 0.207 · 93.8 · 11.6% 7.7% 13.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Vásquez +525 0.151 · 88.2 · 9.8% 25.0% 11.9% F B O D 49

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Vásquez — 0.114 · 89.2 · 6.8% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Lodolo +750 0.077 · 87.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 37

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Lodolo Edge +625 0.110 · 87.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Lodolo Edge +575 0.104 · 89.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ty France R Edge

9.4% 9.6% 10.0% 9.6% C+ 61 +500

Jackson Merrill L

12.3% 10.7% 7.7% 10.9% C+ 60 +425

Manny Machado R Edge

11.2% 5.8% 8.7% 9.4% C 56 +280

Fernando Tatis R Edge

10.5% 13.9% 17.6% 12.3% C 52 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

115

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.3% 4.3% 3.2% 6.2% D 43 +575

136

Freddy Fermin R Edge

2.7% 4.7% 8.3% 3.6% D 40 +625

155

Jake Cronenworth L

3.4% 2.4% 3.2% 3.2% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.6% ← leak BRK 21.1% OFF 8.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.0% 10.6% 8.7% 13.2% C+ 65 +370

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.5% 10.7% 5.4% 13.2% C 58 +330

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.9% 6.5% 5.0% 9.3% C 55 +330

Tyler Stephenson R

16.0% 7.0% 4.5% 12.2% C 55 +425

Eugenio Suarez R

12.7% 6.4% 4.8% 10.6% C 52 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

10.9% 10.0% 3.7% 9.8% D 49 +525

133

Dane Myers R

4.1% 5.5% 5.3% 4.7% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.6% usage) carries Vásquez's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Tatis Stewart Bleday Stephenson Suarez Mclain

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +370 · 65

Jackson Merrill +425 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 89°F open

↑

4 mph · out

90°F

6:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

88°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

86°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

83°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 89°F, wind 4 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 61 C+ +500 COOL 21 0.218 91.9 9.6% 22.2%vs LHP 392 15.9% 16.7% 25.1% 28

2 Jackson Merrill 60 C+ +425 · 23 0.179 90.7 10.2% 14.3%vs LHP 412 16.2% 25.0% 21.4% 29

3 Manny Machado 56 C +280 COOL 36 0.184 90.4 9.3% 14.8%vs LHP 397 16.7% 8.3% 13.4% 30

4 Fernando Tatis 52 C — WARM 51 0.157 92.8 10.7% 46.7%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 26.3% 39

5 Xander Bogaerts 43 D +575 WARM 115 0.104 89.1 7.6% 4.8%vs LHP 400 7.8% 0.0% 8.1% 29

6 Freddy Fermin 40 D +625 COOL 136 0.110 87.4 5.8% 12.5%vs LHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 9.2% 18

7 Jake Cronenworth 37 D +750 COOL 155 0.077 87.2 5.5% 14.3%vs LHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 9.3% 26

vs Randy Vásquez · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 65 C+ +370 · 11 0.222 90.1 11.4% 23.7%vs RHP 397 18.7% 38.5% 27.3% 40

2 Elly De La Cruz 58 C +330 · 30 0.207 93.8 11.6% 20.3%vs RHP 398 15.3% 7.7% 13.8% 36

3 Jj Bleday 55 C +330 · 38 0.211 88.6 9.8% 21.1%vs RHP 387 20.0% 25.0% 14.2% 32

4 Tyler Stephenson 55 C +425 · 42 0.177 91.1 11.1% 22.4%vs RHP 392 10.1% 16.7% 20.5% 25

5 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +500 COOL 50 0.206 88.4 10.3% 29.1%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 22

6 Matt Mclain 49 D +525 COOL 69 0.151 88.2 9.8% 13.6%vs RHP 394 14.3% 25.0% 11.9% 33

7 Dane Myers 41 D — COOL 133 0.114 89.2 6.8% 11.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 12.5% 8.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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