TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.42×

ATL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 5 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:45p

+11 ↑

7:45p

+10 ↑

8:45p

+9 ↑

9:45p

+8 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +12

Best of game Drake Baldwin conv 17 · vs Irvin ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 23 · vs Smith-Shawver → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 79

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Drake Baldwin +305 C+ ●●●○○

2 Matt Olson +225 B ●●○○○

3 Michael Harris — C ●○○○○

FADE AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · ATL

leak 24

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +475 C ●●●●○

2 Keibert Ruiz +500 C ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +320 C+ ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Smith-Shawver Edge +475 0.176 · 88.6 · 7.9% 28.6% 18.0% F B O C 55

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +500 0.169 · 88.2 · 5.8% 25.0% 16.5% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Irvin Edge +305 0.176 · 91.8 · 11.7% 15.4% 17.7% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Irvin Edge +225 0.269 · 92.7 · 12.8% 7.7% 22.1% F B O B 73

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +320 0.238 · 89.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.199 · 90.4 · 10.5% 0.0% 17.3% F B O C 56

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Irvin — 0.170 · 90.2 · 11.7% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 54

· ATL Austin Riley vs Irvin +370 0.141 · 91.4 · 11.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O C 54

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Irvin Edge +475 0.159 · 86.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O C 50

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Irvin Edge +475 0.149 · 90.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Irvin +750 0.120 · 86.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Smith-Shawver — 0.148 · 87.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 45

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Smith-Shawver +475 0.143 · 90.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 49

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Smith-Shawver Edge — 0.036 · 85.2 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.7% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.2% 12.3% 12.5% 15.1% B 73 +225

Neutral · 6

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.4% 18.2% 5.8% 12.9% C+ 62 +305

Michael Harris L Edge

7.3% 12.6% 13.2% 10.1% C 56 —

Ronald Acuna R

13.3% 11.5% 13.3% 12.9% C 54 —

Austin Riley R

12.4% 14.3% 5.3% 12.1% C 54 +370

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.2% 7.1% 5.4% 6.9% C 51 +475

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.2% 1.6% 2.6% 4.0% C 50 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 7.1% 2.5% 5.5% D 48 —

124

Mauricio Dubon R

2.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.8% D 42 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.7% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.0% OFF 35.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.1% 11.5% 9.8% C+ 60 +320

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.6% 4.0% 8.6% C 55 +475

Keibert Ruiz L Edge

5.9% 1.9% 4.7% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

6.7% 8.7% 8.9% D 49 +475

106

Jacob Young R

7.8% 2.8% 6.2% D 45 —

200

Nasim Nunez S Edge

1.1% 0.0% 0.6% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Smith-Shawver's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Irvin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Daylen Lile +475 · 55

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 5 mph out 86°F open

+12

↑

5 mph · out

89°F

6:45p · peak

+11

↑

4 mph · out

87°F

7:45p

+10

↑

3 mph · out

85°F

8:45p

↑

2 mph · out

83°F

9:45p

↑

2 mph · out

81°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.42× 86°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 73 B +225 · 3 0.269 92.7 12.8% 31.1%vs RHP 408 23.7% 7.7% 22.1% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 62 C+ +305 · 17 0.176 91.8 11.7% 24.6%vs RHP 402 16.1% 15.4% 17.7% 34

3 Michael Harris 56 C — COOL 37 0.199 90.4 10.5% 23.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 39

4 Ronald Acuna 54 C — COOL 44 0.170 90.2 11.7% 21.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 31

5 Austin Riley 54 C +370 WARM 45 0.141 91.4 11.3% 17.3%vs RHP 407 8.8% 0.0% 12.1% 21

6 Mike Yastrzemski 51 C +475 COOL 62 0.149 90.7 8.5% 15.2%vs RHP 389 7.9% 0.0% 11.2% 14

7 Ozzie Albies 50 C +475 COOL 65 0.159 86.9 6.5% 12.6%vs RHP 386 13.0% 0.0% 11.6% 37

8 Dominic Smith 48 D — COOL 81 0.124 87.7 7.6% 14.3%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 12.2% 5

9 Mauricio Dubon 42 D +750 COOL 124 0.120 86.6 6.3% 9.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 42

vs AJ Smith-Shawver · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.10 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 60 C+ +320 COOL 24 0.238 89.4 8.4% 28.7%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 18.8% 22

2 Daylen Lile 55 C +475 · 43 0.176 88.6 7.9% 13.4%vs RHP 401 12.3% 28.6% 18.0% 39

3 Keibert Ruiz 50 C +500 COOL 64 0.169 88.2 5.8% 10.0%vs RHP 377 10.6% 25.0% 16.5% 26

4 Dylan Crews 49 D +475 COOL 72 0.143 90.1 8.2% 11.9%vs RHP 407 13.9% 0.0% 8.5% 34

5 Jacob Young 45 D — COOL 106 0.148 87.8 6.7% 12.3%vs RHP 399 7.1% 0.0% 8.9% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 27 D — WARM 200 0.036 85.2 2.1% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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