TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ LAA

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NYY @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:38p

+4 ↑

7:38p

+4 ↑

8:38p

+3 ↑

9:38p

+1 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +5

Best of game Zach Neto conv 21 · vs Cole ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 27 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 56

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +400 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 55

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +305 C ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham +350 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Rodriguez — 0.211 · 86.7 · 9.9% 33.3% 20.3% F B O C 50

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge +305 0.271 · 92.2 · 11.5% 15.4% 18.3% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Cole +400 0.197 · 89.6 · 9.5% 25.0% 16.4% F B O D 46

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Rodriguez Edge +350 0.189 · 90.6 · 9.3% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 46

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.158 · 88.8 · 7.4% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 38

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Cole +750 0.137 · 87.8 · 7.2% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 32

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Cole Edge +625 0.144 · 88.7 · 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 34

· NYY Austin Wells vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.130 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 35

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Cole +400 0.189 · 89.8 · 11.1% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· NYY Jazz Chisholm vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.172 · 90.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 39

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Rodriguez +850 0.140 · 83.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 30

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Cole — 0.120 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.3% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 21.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

17.4% 11.5% 12.4% 14.9% C 59 +305

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.3% 8.8% 5.9% 11.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.3% 6.8% 6.7% 9.8% D 46 +350

142

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.1% 6.8% 12.6% 8.8% D 39 —

154

Cody Bellinger L Edge

4.0% 8.5% 10.7% 6.2% D 38 +425

166

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 0.0% 4.8% 6.7% D 35 +500

189

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.3% 9.0% 8.3% 11.9% D 46 +400

114

Mike Trout R

15.6% 20.4% 10.7% 16.0% D 43 +400

172

Josh Lowe L Edge

10.3% 4.4% 5.3% 7.8% D 34 +625

182

Vaughn Grissom R

8.1% 6.7% 2.4% 6.7% D 32 +750

196

Oswald Peraza R

6.1% 6.6% 10.0% 6.8% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Paul Goldschmidt — · 50

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

6:38p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

7:38p

↑

9 mph · out

72°F

8:38p

↑

8 mph · out

71°F

9:38p

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 77°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 59 C +305 · 26 0.271 92.2 11.5% 31.2%vs RHP 394 23.8% 15.4% 18.3% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — WARM 63 0.211 86.7 9.9% 17.9%vs RHP 390 17.3% 33.3% 20.3% 14

3 Trent Grisham 46 D +350 · 96 0.189 90.6 9.3% 21.4%vs RHP 388 13.5% 15.4% 12.4% 33

4 Jazz Chisholm 39 D — · 142 0.172 90.8 8.8% 21.7%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 31

5 Cody Bellinger 38 D +425 COOL 154 0.158 88.8 7.4% 11.6%vs RHP 378 9.3% 11.1% 7.4% 28

6 Austin Wells 35 D +500 · 166 0.130 89.2 7.6% 13.0%vs RHP 379 8.2% 0.0% 10.6% 22

7 Jose Caballero 30 D +850 WARM 189 0.140 83.9 6.2% 20.5%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 32

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 46 D +400 · 91 0.197 89.6 9.5% 19.3%vs RHP 404 16.2% 25.0% 16.4% 38

2 Mike Trout 43 D +400 COOL 114 0.189 89.8 11.1% 21.7%vs RHP 409 13.8% 0.0% 10.1% 31

3 Josh Lowe 34 D +625 COOL 172 0.144 88.7 7.7% 17.9%vs RHP 392 9.5% 7.7% 7.8% 24

4 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +750 COOL 182 0.137 87.8 7.2% 19.1%vs RHP 389 8.5% 7.7% 8.0% 36

5 Oswald Peraza 29 D — COOL 196 0.120 87.3 7.2% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.1% 0.0% 7.3% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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