TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.52×

MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 25 · vs Phillips ⟷ Heriberto Hernández conv 13 · vs Dobnak → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 71

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +390 C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +500 D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 13

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Heriberto Hernández +350 D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee +750 D ●○○○○

3 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 20.7% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Phillips Edge +390 0.187 · 91.1 · 9.2% 30.0% 20.7% F B O C 55

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Phillips Edge +350 0.215 · 93.2 · 10.8% 11.1% 16.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Phillips Edge +500 0.136 · 89.6 · 7.8% 27.3% 13.4% F B O D 46

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Dobnak +350 0.235 · 91.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 26.2% F B O D 48

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Dobnak Edge +750 0.112 · 87.2 · 3.9% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 33

· KC Nick Loftin vs Phillips +850 0.147 · 87.2 · 5.6% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Dobnak +950 0.139 · 86.8 · 3.1% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Dobnak +850 0.138 · 89.1 · 5.4% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 37

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Dobnak Edge +305 0.215 · 92.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 49

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Dobnak Edge +500 0.194 · 91.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 47

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Phillips — 0.167 · 92.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· KC Salvador Perez vs Phillips +425 0.149 · 88.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 42

· KC Isaac Collins vs Phillips Edge +850 0.120 · 88.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.3% BRK 30.5% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L Edge

11.2% 18.0% 7.3% 12.3% D 49 +305

Heriberto Hernández R

13.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6% D 48 +350

Owen Caissie L Edge

15.9% 8.7% 17.1% 14.1% D 47 +500

157

Otto Lopez R

9.0% 3.6% 4.3% 6.4% D 37 +850

175

Javier Sanoja R

2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 2.1% D 34 +950

179

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 1.7% 7.3% 3.4% D 33 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 43.0% FB 33.5% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

18.3% 12.8% 11.1% 14.3% C 57 +350

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.8% 10.8% 9.1% 10.5% C 55 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

6.1% 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% D 46 +500

Bobby Witt R

9.5% 12.1% 15.4% 11.6% D 46 —

119

Salvador Perez R

5.8% 13.3% 10.0% 9.9% D 42 +425

131

Nick Loftin R

1.8% 5.5% 0.0% 3.9% D 41 +850

153

Isaac Collins S Edge

8.1% 5.9% 1.9% 5.5% D 38 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Caglianone Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +390 · 55

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph out 92°F open

↑

7 mph · out

93°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · out

88°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · out

86°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.52× 92°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 49 D +305 HOT 67 0.215 92.3 7.4% 23.1%vs RHP 396 12.8% 0.0% 13.4% 8

2 Heriberto Hernández 48 D +350 COOL 74 0.235 91.3 7.8% 24.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 31

3 Owen Caissie 47 D +500 COOL 86 0.194 91.0 8.0% 26.5%vs RHP 398 13.8% 0.0% 12.5% 14

4 Otto Lopez 37 D +850 WARM 157 0.138 89.1 5.4% 9.5%vs RHP 402 6.8% 8.3% 7.5% 39

5 Javier Sanoja 34 D +950 COOL 175 0.139 86.8 3.1% 6.7%vs RHP 378 6.5% 9.1% 7.2% 36

6 Jakob Marsee 33 D +750 WARM 179 0.112 87.2 3.9% 10.1%vs RHP 381 7.4% 11.1% 6.9% 22

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 57 C +350 · 32 0.215 93.2 10.8% 30.8%vs RHP 416 15.0% 11.1% 16.2% 25

2 Carter Jensen ✶ 55 C +390 WARM 41 0.187 91.1 9.2% 18.2%vs RHP 396 15.6% 30.0% 20.7% 26

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 46 D +500 HOT 93 0.136 89.6 7.8% 13.8%vs RHP 398 10.2% 27.3% 13.4% 38

4 Bobby Witt 46 D — COOL 99 0.167 92.3 9.7% 16.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 40

5 Salvador Perez 42 D +425 · 119 0.149 88.8 9.0% 16.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 39

6 Nick Loftin 41 D +850 · 131 0.147 87.2 5.6% 10.9%vs RHP 394 8.5% 9.1% 8.8% 31

7 Isaac Collins 38 D +850 · 153 0.120 88.8 6.7% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.3% 0.0% 7.4% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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