TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TEX

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ATH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph out 92°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

+8 ↑

11:05p

the 9:05p window peaks +11

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 9 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 28 · vs Basso → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 82

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler +700 D ●○○○○

2 Carlos Cortes — D ●○○○○

3 Zack Gelof +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 3

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +475 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +425 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Basso +475 0.247 · 92.3 · 8.2% 33.3% 21.9% F B O C 58

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Basso Edge +425 0.189 · 90.2 · 8.4% 18.2% 26.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Basso Edge +750 0.177 · 88.9 · 6.2% 15.4% 14.9% F B O D 44

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Basso Edge +500 0.199 · 89.2 · 6.4% 7.7% 13.4% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Gore +700 0.142 · 89.4 · 8.1% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 42

· TEX Corey Seager COOL vs Basso +390 0.180 · 91.7 · 9.2% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 48

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Gore — 0.142 · 89.0 · 7.4% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 40

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Basso +525 0.159 · 92.2 · 7.8% 7.7% 7.6% F B O D 43

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Gore Edge +625 0.191 · 88.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 47

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Gore Edge +625 0.100 · 90.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 38

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Basso — 0.039 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 19

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Gore — 0.096 · 86.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Basso — 0.123 · 88.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.6% ← leak BRK 28.9% OFF 12.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zack Gelof R Edge

8.7% 4.2% 15.8% 7.8% D 47 +625

121

Lawrence Butler L

7.5% 10.9% 3.3% 7.3% D 42 +700

137

Carlos Cortes L

7.3% 3.4% 7.3% 6.3% D 40 —

149

Henry Bolte R Edge

6.6% 8.8% 3.7% 6.8% D 38 +625

194

Jeff Mcneil L

1.5% 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.6% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.8% ← leak BRK 37.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Joc Pederson L

14.8% 11.8% 11.2% C 58 +475

Jake Burger R Edge

11.0% 12.0% 11.7% C 52 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Corey Seager L

13.5% 12.3% 14.1% D 48 +390

Wyatt Langford R Edge

4.6% 9.9% 6.8% D 46 +500

107

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

7.9% 6.0% 6.3% D 44 +750

117

Brandon Nimmo L

8.1% 15.9% 10.2% D 43 +525

169

Evan Carter L

7.2% 4.0% 5.3% D 35 —

210

Nicky Lopez L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.8% usage) carries Basso's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson +475 · 58

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph out 92°F retractable

↑

6 mph · out

93°F

7:05p

+10

↑

8 mph · out

91°F

8:05p

+11

↑

11 mph · out

89°F

9:05p · peak

+10

↑

13 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

86°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 92°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 47 D +625 COOL 85 0.191 88.7 8.2% 15.8%vs LHP 398 17.6% 0.0% 12.6% 31

2 Lawrence Butler 42 D +700 COOL 121 0.142 89.4 8.1% 28.6%vs LHP 410 8.5% 7.7% 9.4% 26

3 Carlos Cortes 40 D — COOL 137 0.142 89.0 7.4% 12.3% 401 5.1% 8.3% 7.7% 27

4 Henry Bolte 38 D +625 COOL 149 0.100 90.9 7.6% 41.7%vs LHP 410 8.8% 0.0% 11.3% 34

5 Jeff Mcneil 30 D — COOL 194 0.096 86.6 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 381 4.8% 0.0% 5.7% 45

vs Brady Basso · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C +475 · 28 0.247 92.3 8.2% 24.5% 395 22.6% 33.3% 21.9% 19

2 Jake Burger 52 C +425 HOT 55 0.189 90.2 8.4% 34.6%vs LHP 401 16.3% 18.2% 26.0% 24

3 Corey Seager 48 D +390 COOL 80 0.180 91.7 9.2% 18.8%vs LHP 394 15.4% 7.7% 8.9% 36

4 Wyatt Langford 46 D +500 COOL 94 0.199 89.2 6.4% 16.7%vs LHP 396 15.3% 7.7% 13.4% 36

5 Ezequiel Duran 44 D +750 COOL 107 0.177 88.9 6.2% 13.6%vs LHP 395 12.6% 15.4% 14.9% 31

6 Brandon Nimmo 43 D +525 COOL 117 0.159 92.2 7.8% 16.1%vs LHP 404 10.2% 7.7% 7.6% 36

7 Evan Carter 35 D — COOL 169 0.123 88.0 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 6.9% 0.0% 4.8% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 19 D — · 210 0.039 84.3 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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