TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ COL

Neutral air · 1.02×

BAL @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +6

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 33 · vs Bradish ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 29 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 74

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +400 C ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 40

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo +330 C ●●●●○

3 Colton Cowser +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 33.6% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Bradish +290 0.288 · 90.3 · 11.4% 33.3% 33.6% F B O C+ 68

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Hughes +265 0.233 · 94.2 · 8.6% 30.8% 28.1% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Hughes +330 0.229 · 91.9 · 8.4% 27.3% 21.3% F B O C 56

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Bradish Edge +400 0.256 · 89.8 · 8.9% 16.7% 23.5% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Hughes Edge +500 0.157 · 88.0 · 7.6% 20.0% 17.1% F B O D 47

· COL Willi Castro vs Bradish Edge +525 0.157 · 87.6 · 8.0% 15.4% 13.5% F B O D 45

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Hughes Edge +425 0.184 · 89.8 · 6.2% 7.7% 13.5% F B O D 46

· COL Troy Johnston vs Bradish Edge — 0.117 · 89.6 · 4.4% 12.5% 8.4% F B O D 34

· COL Ezequiel Tovar HOT vs Bradish +750 0.125 · 87.5 · 7.2% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Hughes Edge +625 0.135 · 88.3 · 4.7% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 37

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Hughes Edge +350 0.198 · 90.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 49

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Bradish Edge +750 0.186 · 85.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Bradish Edge +750 0.148 · 84.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Hughes Edge +625 0.118 · 87.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.8% BRK 26.4% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.2% 10.3% 15.6% 13.9% C+ 61 +265

Coby Mayo R

11.1% 15.1% 15.2% 13.1% C 56 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.0% 10.6% 10.2% 12.6% D 49 +350

Colton Cowser L Edge

12.6% 15.2% 3.9% 10.9% D 47 +500

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.1% 7.8% 7.1% 7.3% D 46 +425

156

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.3% 8.2% 0.0% 4.2% D 37 +625

165

Jackson Holliday L Edge

6.7% 4.2% 7.0% 6.1% D 35 +625

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% BRK 46.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

18.8% 16.1% 16.4% C+ 68 +290

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.4% 19.2% 9.8% C 58 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Willi Castro S Edge

10.3% 6.4% 8.1% D 45 +525

112

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 2.2% 5.1% D 43 +750

135

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.4% 7.1% 6.7% D 40 +750

146

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.2% 1.7% 4.1% D 38 +750

171

Troy Johnston L Edge

3.0% 2.3% 2.4% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +290 · 68

Pete Alonso +265 · 61

Coby Mayo +330 · 56

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 74°F open

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

73°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

8:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 74°F, wind 7 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +265 · 19 0.233 94.2 8.6% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.2% 30.8% 28.1% 33

2 Coby Mayo 56 C +330 WARM 34 0.229 91.9 8.4% 10.0%vs RHP 411 17.3% 27.3% 21.3% 22

3 Samuel Basallo 49 D +350 COOL 66 0.198 90.4 8.2% 30.0%vs RHP 399 14.6% 0.0% 14.2% 20

4 Colton Cowser 47 D +500 WARM 84 0.157 88.0 7.6% 21.1%vs RHP 412 16.4% 20.0% 17.1% 23

5 Gunnar Henderson 46 D +425 · 92 0.184 89.8 6.2% 17.5%vs RHP 393 14.8% 7.7% 13.5% 34

6 Leody Taveras 37 D +625 · 156 0.135 88.3 4.7% 13.0%vs RHP 403 5.1% 7.7% 7.8% 34

7 Jackson Holliday 35 D +625 COOL 165 0.118 87.1 5.7% 14.3%vs RHP 388 3.8% 0.0% 7.8% 40

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 68 C+ +290 COOL 6 0.288 90.3 11.4% 38.6%vs RHP 412 24.1% 33.3% 33.6% 18

2 Mickey Moniak 58 C +400 WARM 27 0.256 89.8 8.9% 23.4%vs RHP 415 16.8% 16.7% 23.5% 30

3 Willi Castro 45 D +525 · 104 0.157 87.6 8.0% 16.9%vs RHP 409 11.1% 15.4% 13.5% 31

4 Jake Mccarthy 43 D +750 · 112 0.186 85.0 6.4% 15.0%vs RHP 414 11.1% 0.0% 11.9% 42

5 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D +750 HOT 135 0.125 87.5 7.2% 13.3%vs RHP 409 7.7% 10.0% 9.7% 17

6 Tj Rumfield 38 D +750 WARM 146 0.148 84.1 5.9% 13.8%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 9.3% 33

7 Troy Johnston 34 D — WARM 171 0.117 89.6 4.4% 4.2%vs RHP 411 2.1% 12.5% 8.4% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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