9
HRs allowed
10.0%
HR rate (pool)
17.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.49
FIP
4.32
xFIP
+0.18
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
82
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 82th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.9 EV · 408 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jake Irvin.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.5%
83.2
28.7°
0
-0.2
Curveball Breaking
25.6%
80.7
6.5°
0
-2.0
Sinker Hard
24.0%
85.2
17.4°
5
+0.7
Cutter Hard
10.6%
84.5
14.2°
1
+2.7
Sweeper Breaking
7.8%
76.5
24.8°
1
+3.5
Changeup Offspeed
4.4%
74.0
5.9°
0
-0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups90
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate10.0%
Pool HR/game day0.9
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB17.2% 82
HR/9—
FIP4.49 66
xFIP4.32
FIP − xFIP+0.18 59
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 27.5% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle28.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches261
Curveball
Breaking · 25.6% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches243
Sinker
Hard · 24.0% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle17.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches228
Cutter
Hard · 10.6% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches101
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.8% usage
+3.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.5 mph
Avg launch angle24.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches74
Changeup
Offspeed · 4.4% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.0 mph
Avg launch angle5.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches42
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jake Irvin.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.9 EV · 408 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-23
9
0
109.4
2026-05-18
9
2
111.2
2026-05-13
9
1
110.7
2026-05-07
9
1
107.6
2026-05-01
9
0
108.8
2026-04-25
9
0
101.1
2026-04-20
9
1
114.9
2026-04-10
9
1
112.4
2026-04-04
9
1
107.7
2026-03-29
9
2
107.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jake Irvin isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.