TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.24×

CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+5 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +8

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 24 · vs Griffin ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 24 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 87

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 51

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 30.5% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Griffin — 0.262 · 93.8 · 12.6% 16.7% 30.5% F B O C+ 63

· — Colson Montgomery COOL vs Griffin — 0.219 · 88.8 · 10.4% 15.4% 28.0% F B O C 57

· — Miguel Vargas COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.223 · 90.2 · 10.7% 16.7% 15.9% F B O C 56

· — Randal Grichuk vs Griffin Edge — 0.282 · 91.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 28.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Martin Edge — 0.146 · 87.9 · 5.5% 33.3% 14.4% F B O D 40

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.127 · 86.9 · 4.4% 23.1% 12.1% F B O D 35

· — Chase Meidroth vs Griffin Edge — 0.131 · 87.3 · 6.2% 7.7% 13.3% F B O D 37

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.121 · 90.3 · 6.8% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 36

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Martin Edge — 0.197 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 40

· — Braden Montgomery vs Griffin Edge — 0.130 · 88.9 · 6.2% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 36

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.068 · 83.6 · 1.6% 7.1% 6.3% F B O D 21

· — Andrew Benintendi vs Griffin — 0.175 · 89.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· — Tristan Peters vs Griffin — 0.183 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Martin Edge — 0.165 · 91.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 38

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· — Sam Antonacci COOL vs Griffin — 0.124 · 87.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Davis Martin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Rocchio Murakami Montgomery Vargas Grichuk

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 78°F open

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

6:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 78°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 40 D — · 139 0.197 87.6 7.0% 21.7%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 27

2 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 140 0.146 87.9 5.5% 17.2%vs RHP 394 11.8% 33.3% 14.4% 27

3 Chase Delauter 38 D — · 151 0.165 91.5 6.3% 20.3%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 29

4 Patrick Bailey 36 D — COOL 170 0.121 90.3 6.8% 15.6%vs RHP 409 6.9% 11.1% 7.6% 20

5 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — COOL 175 0.127 86.9 4.4% 12.2%vs RHP 384 8.5% 23.1% 12.1% 34

6 Jose Ramirez 31 D — COOL 197 0.133 88.6 5.1% 8.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 39

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — COOL 224 0.068 83.6 1.6% 4.1%vs RHP 367 2.2% 7.1% 6.3% 47

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 10 0.262 93.8 12.6% 28.6%vs LHP 401 18.1% 16.7% 30.5% 20

2 Colson Montgomery 57 C — COOL 27 0.219 88.8 10.4% 31.2%vs LHP 397 21.4% 15.4% 28.0% 21

3 Miguel Vargas 56 C — COOL 35 0.223 90.2 10.7% 27.9%vs LHP 392 19.8% 16.7% 15.9% 36

4 Randal Grichuk 55 C — WARM 36 0.282 91.6 9.7% 24.3%vs LHP 387 13.5% 0.0% 28.3% 17

5 Andrew Benintendi 44 D — · 111 0.175 89.3 8.5% 11.9% 388 11.8% 0.0% 10.6% 24

6 Tristan Peters 42 D — · 128 0.183 87.5 7.0% 9.1%vs LHP 377 10.8% 0.0% 10.6% 32

7 Chase Meidroth 37 D — WARM 161 0.131 87.3 6.2% 23.1%vs LHP 382 7.7% 7.7% 13.3% 27

8 Braden Montgomery 36 D — WARM 171 0.130 88.9 6.2% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.7% 9.1% 7.1% 26

9 Sam Antonacci 35 D — COOL 179 0.124 87.4 6.5% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 6.4% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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