TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.12×

ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +5

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 35 · vs Pérez ⟷ Matt Olson conv 19 · vs Gausman → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 95

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Michael Busch — C ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●○○○

FADE Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 64

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●○○

2 Austin Riley — C ●●●○○

3 Ronald Acuna — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 39.7% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Pérez — 0.285 · 90.7 · 8.5% 30.8% 39.7% F B O B 70

· — Matt Olson COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.258 · 92.8 · 10.4% 15.4% 22.0% F B O C+ 66

· — Austin Riley vs Gausman — 0.145 · 91.3 · 9.4% 15.4% 18.9% F B O C 51

· CHC Michael Busch vs Pérez — 0.157 · 88.4 · 7.0% 16.7% 16.1% F B O C 50

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Pérez Edge — 0.186 · 88.0 · 5.5% 15.4% 14.1% F B O C 50

· — Ronald Acuna vs Gausman — 0.189 · 90.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 28.4% F B O C 51

· — Drake Baldwin COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.173 · 91.6 · 9.6% 7.7% 12.9% F B O C 53

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Pérez Edge — 0.208 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 54

· CHC Ian Happ vs Pérez Edge — 0.190 · 89.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Ozzie Albies vs Gausman Edge — 0.161 · 87.1 · 5.3% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 45

· — Michael Harris COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.198 · 90.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 49

· — Dominic Smith COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· — Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.143 · 90.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· — Mauricio Dubon vs Gausman — 0.117 · 86.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Pérez Edge — 0.127 · 87.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Pérez Edge — 0.092 · 85.9 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Martín Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kevin Gausman — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Busch Bregman Olson Acuna Riley

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 70

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

73°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

71°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · cross

69°F

8:40p

↑

8 mph · cross

67°F

9:40p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 73°F, wind 5 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 70 B — WARM 2 0.285 90.7 8.5% 32.4%vs LHP 397 23.2% 30.8% 39.7% 32

2 Seiya Suzuki 54 C — · 42 0.208 88.5 7.6% 30.8%vs LHP 406 15.7% 0.0% 16.4% 31

3 Ian Happ 53 C — WARM 47 0.190 89.5 7.8% 14.8%vs LHP 402 16.8% 0.0% 12.5% 19

4 Michael Busch 50 C — · 63 0.157 88.4 7.0% 14.6%vs LHP 403 13.3% 16.7% 16.1% 31

5 Alex Bregman 50 C — WARM 64 0.186 88.0 5.5% 18.9%vs LHP 389 12.8% 15.4% 14.1% 37

6 Carson Kelly 41 D — WARM 136 0.127 87.0 5.4% 21.4%vs LHP 403 8.4% 0.0% 9.4% 24

7 Nico Hoerner 33 D — WARM 188 0.092 85.9 2.8% 9.4%vs LHP 383 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% 44

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 66 C+ — COOL 6 0.258 92.8 10.4% 27.9%vs RHP 406 23.0% 15.4% 22.0% 36

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C — COOL 46 0.173 91.6 9.6% 21.6%vs RHP 402 15.3% 7.7% 12.9% 38

3 Ronald Acuna 51 C — · 51 0.189 90.0 9.5% 24.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% 42

4 Austin Riley 51 C — WARM 55 0.145 91.3 9.4% 18.5%vs RHP 410 9.4% 15.4% 18.9% 26

5 Michael Harris 49 D — COOL 68 0.198 90.4 8.7% 24.3%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 36

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D — WARM 101 0.161 87.1 5.3% 12.5%vs RHP 387 12.7% 8.3% 10.7% 38

7 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D — COOL 113 0.143 90.4 7.3% 13.6%vs RHP 391 7.4% 0.0% 9.6% 17

8 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 127 0.121 87.7 6.3% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 11.1% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — · 166 0.117 86.5 5.2% 9.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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