TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.94×

NYY @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Ben Rice conv 28 · vs Ober ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 21 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 68

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●○○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.81 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 28.8% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Ober Edge — 0.267 · 92.0 · 11.7% 27.3% 28.8% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Ober — 0.264 · 94.0 · 14.1% 16.7% 16.9% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Fried — 0.231 · 92.2 · 5.9% 25.0% 17.7% F B O D 47

· MIN Josh Bell HOT vs Fried Edge — 0.167 · 89.8 · 5.4% 27.3% 12.9% F B O D 38

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Ober Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 7.9% 25.0% 14.5% F B O D 45

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Fried — 0.166 · 87.7 · 4.7% 25.0% 13.7% F B O D 36

· NYY Austin Wells vs Ober Edge — 0.127 · 89.4 · 8.1% 16.7% 7.7% F B O D 40

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Fried Edge — 0.161 · 89.8 · 5.7% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 36

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Fried Edge — 0.182 · 88.1 · 3.5% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 35

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Ober — 0.206 · 86.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 49

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.140 · 90.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Ober — 0.135 · 84.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.090 · 87.0 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 24

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Fried — 0.099 · 89.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 25

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.111 · 85.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bailey Ober — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Judge Bellinger Clemens Bell Larnach

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice — · 65

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph out 66°F open

↑

6 mph · out

66°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

63°F

7:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

60°F

8:40p

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

58°F

9:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · slight_out

56°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 66°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 65 C+ — · 7 0.267 92.0 11.7% 31.5%vs RHP 393 24.1% 27.3% 28.8% 29

2 Aaron Judge 62 C+ — COOL 16 0.264 94.0 14.1% 32.4%vs RHP 404 22.4% 16.7% 16.9% 8

3 Paul Goldschmidt 49 D — COOL 71 0.206 86.8 10.0% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 0.0% 12.2% 11

4 Cody Bellinger 45 D — WARM 98 0.166 89.1 7.9% 13.0%vs RHP 376 10.9% 25.0% 14.5% 39

5 Ryan Mcmahon 41 D — COOL 132 0.140 90.4 9.2% 17.2%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 8.3% 24

6 Austin Wells 40 D — WARM 144 0.127 89.4 8.1% 15.1%vs RHP 380 9.2% 16.7% 7.7% 20

7 Jose Caballero 33 D — COOL 185 0.135 84.0 6.5% 21.4%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 10

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.81 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 47 D — · 83 0.231 92.2 5.9% 18.5%vs LHP 390 18.4% 25.0% 17.7% 30

2 Josh Bell 38 D — HOT 153 0.167 89.8 5.4% 12.5%vs LHP 407 12.5% 27.3% 12.9% 26

3 Trevor Larnach 36 D — WARM 168 0.166 87.7 4.7% 25.0%vs LHP 389 10.5% 25.0% 13.7% 18

4 Royce Lewis 36 D — · 169 0.161 89.8 5.7% 15.4%vs LHP 402 13.3% 9.1% 8.3% 29

5 Brooks Lee 35 D — WARM 177 0.182 88.1 3.5% 7.9%vs LHP 374 15.9% 8.3% 8.4% 35

6 Victor Caratini 25 D — COOL 214 0.099 89.6 4.4% 11.8%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 6

7 Luke Keaschall 24 D — COOL 218 0.111 85.5 3.1% 2.6%vs LHP 378 6.9% 0.0% 5.5% 38

8 Austin Martin 24 D — COOL 219 0.090 87.0 3.0% 7.4%vs LHP 394 3.0% 0.0% 7.5% 3

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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