TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.15×

BAL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph out 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +6

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 28 · vs Manaea ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 32 · vs Baz → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 71

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 31

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto — C ●●●●○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: Match 31.6% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Baz Edge — 0.213 · 91.2 · 7.9% 41.7% 21.9% F B O C 52

· BAL Coby Mayo ✶ COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.240 · 91.4 · 11.7% 25.0% 31.6% F B O C+ 62

· NYM Juan Soto vs Baz Edge — 0.255 · 92.5 · 9.7% 25.0% 24.8% F B O C 58

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.229 · 93.8 · 12.1% 23.1% 25.0% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Manaea — 0.184 · 90.4 · 11.4% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Baz Edge — 0.137 · 90.2 · 8.3% 12.5% 12.7% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Baz — 0.130 · 89.6 · 6.6% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 37

· NYM Jared Young vs Baz Edge — 0.165 · 90.0 · 6.9% 12.5% 9.6% F B O D 39

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Manaea — 0.175 · 89.2 · 8.9% 7.7% 13.9% F B O D 48

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Baz — 0.168 · 90.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 42

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Manaea — 0.113 · 87.0 · 8.2% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 38

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.140 · 88.7 · 6.7% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 37

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Manaea — 0.150 · 88.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 45

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Baz Edge — 0.122 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 33

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Baz — 0.126 · 86.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.127 · 88.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sean Manaea — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Soto Lindor

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Francisco Lindor — · 52

Coby Mayo — · 62

Juan Soto — · 58

Pete Alonso — · 63

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph out 65°F open

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8 mph · out

65°F

7:10p

↑

9 mph · out

65°F

8:10p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

9:10p

↑

9 mph · out

64°F

10:10p · peak

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8 mph · out

64°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 65°F, wind 8 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 63 C+ — COOL 12 0.229 93.8 12.1% 21.4%vs LHP 402 21.3% 23.1% 25.0% 33

2 Coby Mayo ✶ 62 C+ — COOL 13 0.240 91.4 11.7% 41.0%vs LHP 411 18.1% 25.0% 31.6% 28

3 Samuel Basallo 50 C — COOL 65 0.184 90.4 11.4% 20.0%vs LHP 399 13.3% 0.0% 13.1% 20

4 Gunnar Henderson 48 D — COOL 77 0.175 89.2 8.9% 29.6%vs LHP 393 14.2% 7.7% 13.9% 28

5 Colton Cowser 45 D — WARM 103 0.150 88.1 10.4% 14.3%vs LHP 412 14.5% 0.0% 9.9% 10

6 Jackson Holliday 38 D — COOL 158 0.113 87.0 8.2% 7.1%vs LHP 389 4.4% 9.1% 7.8% 32

7 Leody Taveras 36 D — COOL 172 0.127 88.1 6.5% 5.9%vs LHP 403 4.7% 0.0% 6.8% 13

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 58 C — · 25 0.255 92.5 9.7% 31.2%vs RHP 401 20.8% 25.0% 24.8% 40

2 Francisco Lindor 52 C — WARM 48 0.213 91.2 7.9% 22.7%vs RHP 390 16.7% 41.7% 21.9% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 42 D — WARM 124 0.168 90.4 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 16

4 Brett Baty 40 D — HOT 143 0.137 90.2 8.3% 14.1%vs RHP 396 7.1% 12.5% 12.7% 18

5 Jared Young 39 D — · 145 0.165 90.0 6.9% 18.4%vs RHP 396 7.4% 12.5% 9.6% 26

6 Carson Benge 37 D — COOL 164 0.140 88.7 6.7% 15.0%vs RHP 395 10.4% 8.3% 7.8% 30

7 Bo Bichette 37 D — WARM 165 0.130 89.6 6.6% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.3% 16.7% 7.5% 36

8 Marcus Semien 34 D — COOL 184 0.126 86.7 6.4% 13.4%vs RHP 391 9.8% 0.0% 6.9% 32

9 A.J. Ewing 33 D — WARM 186 0.122 89.4 7.0% 13.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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