TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.97×

SF @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 12 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:45p

-12 ↑

7:45p

-13 ↑

8:45p

-11 ↑

9:45p

-10 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at -7

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 9 · vs Pallante ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 10 · vs Tidwell → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 58

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge — D ●○○○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●○○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ○○○○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 10

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker — C ●○○○○

2 Alec Burleson — D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: Match 10.4% · 14D pace 9.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ COOL vs Tidwell — 0.207 · 92.4 · 10.8% 9.1% 10.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.184 · 91.8 · 10.0% 7.7% 10.9% F B O D 46

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.186 · 92.7 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 41

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.146 · 86.6 · 5.3% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 31

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Tidwell Edge — 0.130 · 89.3 · 9.8% 8.3% 7.1% F B O D 38

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.122 · 85.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Tidwell — 0.133 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Pallante Edge — 0.123 · 87.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 25

· STL Masyn Winn vs Tidwell — 0.087 · 88.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 27

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Tidwell — 0.109 · 86.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andre Pallante — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Blade Tidwell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker

Legend

attack side — vs Pallante fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 12 mph cross 82°F open

-7

↑

12 mph · cross

82°F

6:45p · peak

-12

↑

11 mph · cross

80°F

7:45p

-13

↑

8 mph · in

79°F

8:45p

-11

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

9:45p

-10

↑

5 mph · in

76°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 82°F, wind 12 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge 41 D — COOL 137 0.186 92.7 7.6% 17.2%vs RHP 398 17.3% 7.7% 9.4% 31

2 Drew Gilbert 31 D — COOL 198 0.146 86.6 5.3% 18.0%vs RHP 392 7.3% 9.1% 7.9% 19

3 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D — WARM 216 0.123 87.7 3.5% 9.3%vs RHP 382 5.2% 0.0% 5.9% 38

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 50 C — COOL 66 0.207 92.4 10.8% 25.7%vs RHP 406 16.9% 9.1% 10.4% 27

2 Alec Burleson 46 D — COOL 94 0.184 91.8 10.0% 21.8%vs RHP 406 13.9% 7.7% 10.9% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 38 D — WARM 160 0.130 89.3 9.8% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.3% 8.3% 7.1% 21

4 Nathan Church 33 D — COOL 189 0.122 85.7 7.3% 13.3%vs RHP 386 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 38

5 Ivan Herrera 31 D — · 195 0.133 89.4 7.0% 19.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 39

6 José Fermín 28 D — COOL 211 0.109 86.0 4.6% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.4% 0.0% 5.0% 28

7 Masyn Winn 27 D — WARM 213 0.087 88.2 5.6% 7.7%vs RHP 385 4.0% 0.0% 5.2% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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