TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.38×

LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

the 6:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 40 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 29 · vs Lowder → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 86

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

3 Tyler Stephenson — D ●●○○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 63

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 29.4% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.226 · 94.7 · 10.6% 50.0% 29.4% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Max Muncy vs Lowder Edge — 0.244 · 90.6 · 11.1% 29.4% 29.4% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Lowder — 0.185 · 90.2 · 8.6% 30.8% 22.0% F B O C 56

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Yamamoto — 0.223 · 88.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 30.0% F B O C 50

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Yamamoto — 0.207 · 90.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Lowder Edge — 0.143 · 88.8 · 7.8% 30.8% 14.8% F B O D 49

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Yamamoto — 0.174 · 91.1 · 9.2% 9.1% 12.5% F B O D 48

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.154 · 89.4 · 8.7% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 48

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.154 · 88.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 44

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.133 · 87.4 · 7.0% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 43

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.202 · 88.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 49

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Lowder — 0.152 · 90.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 46

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.109 · 89.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· LAD Alex Freeland HOT vs Lowder Edge — 0.076 · 89.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Cruz Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 64

Max Muncy — · 68

Mookie Betts — · 56

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 91°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

91°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

88°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

86°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

84°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 91°F, wind 5 mph S (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 68 C+ — · 4 0.244 90.6 11.1% 26.6%vs RHP 410 22.0% 29.4% 29.4% 50

2 Mookie Betts 56 C — WARM 32 0.185 90.2 8.6% 17.9%vs RHP 389 13.1% 30.8% 22.0% 37

3 Kyle Tucker 49 D — WARM 72 0.143 88.8 7.8% 11.0%vs RHP 391 9.3% 30.8% 14.8% 36

4 Freddie Freeman 48 D — COOL 76 0.154 89.4 8.7% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.7% 8.3% 9.9% 20

5 Teoscar Hernandez 46 D — HOT 91 0.152 90.4 10.1% 13.2%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 31

6 Tommy Edman 43 D — COOL 123 0.133 87.4 7.0% 7.0%vs RHP 396 8.3% 8.3% 7.6% 35

7 Alex Freeland 38 D — HOT 157 0.076 89.5 7.4% 9.7%vs RHP 373 2.6% 0.0% 7.9% 22

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 64 C+ — HOT 9 0.226 94.7 10.6% 22.9%vs RHP 404 18.5% 50.0% 29.4% 29

2 Sal Stewart 52 C — WARM 50 0.207 90.2 9.2% 23.5%vs RHP 397 17.0% 0.0% 15.4% 34

3 Eugenio Suarez 50 C — HOT 59 0.223 88.4 9.1% 30.0%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 21

4 Jj Bleday 49 D — COOL 67 0.202 88.4 8.2% 21.2%vs RHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 15.3% 24

5 Tyler Stephenson 48 D — · 74 0.174 91.1 9.2% 20.3%vs RHP 392 10.0% 9.1% 12.5% 22

6 Matt Mclain 44 D — COOL 105 0.154 88.3 8.0% 12.5%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 16.9% 20

7 Dane Myers 35 D — COOL 178 0.109 89.3 5.2% 10.5%vs RHP 384 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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