TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TB

Playable air · 1.07×

ATH @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Zack Gelof conv 30 · vs Jax ⟷ Richie Palacios conv 37 · vs Perkins → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 78

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●●

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

FADE Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 73

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · stingy — thin edge

1 Richie Palacios — C ●●●●●

2 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●○

3 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 32.4% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Richie Palacios HOT vs Perkins Edge — 0.144 · 86.3 · 6.0% 55.6% 19.2% F B O C 50

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Jax — 0.209 · 89.3 · 9.3% 33.3% 27.1% F B O C+ 60

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Perkins — 0.251 · 92.8 · 10.6% 25.0% 32.4% F B O C+ 69

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Perkins Edge — 0.159 · 91.2 · 9.2% 30.0% 20.7% F B O C 55

· ATH Lawrence Butler HOT vs Jax Edge — 0.157 · 89.7 · 8.8% 25.0% 22.1% F B O C 51

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Jax — 0.231 · 91.9 · 11.7% 0.0% 21.7% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Jax — 0.123 · 90.8 · 8.3% 25.0% 14.3% F B O D 47

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Perkins — 0.108 · 85.3 · 4.2% 16.7% 15.6% F B O D 39

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.170 · 87.8 · 7.7% 12.5% 11.3% F B O D 47

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Jax Edge — 0.103 · 86.5 · 4.1% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Perkins — 0.162 · 91.1 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 45

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Perkins — 0.152 · 85.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.140 · 87.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.138 · 88.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 42

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.048 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jack Perkins — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Caminero Aranda Palacios Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Richie Palacios — · 50

Zack Gelof — · 60

Junior Caminero — · 69

Jonathan Aranda — · 55

Lawrence Butler — · 51

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 61 C+ — COOL 17 0.231 91.9 11.7% 23.3%vs RHP 417 20.2% 0.0% 21.7% 4

2 Zack Gelof 60 C+ — HOT 19 0.209 89.3 9.3% 25.5%vs RHP 398 20.6% 33.3% 27.1% 35

3 Lawrence Butler 51 C — HOT 53 0.157 89.7 8.8% 23.5%vs RHP 406 10.0% 25.0% 22.1% 34

4 Henry Bolte 47 D — WARM 85 0.123 90.8 8.3% 11.5%vs RHP 397 11.6% 25.0% 14.3% 27

5 Jonah Heim 47 D — COOL 86 0.170 87.8 7.7% 7.0%vs RHP 409 8.8% 12.5% 11.3% 29

6 Carlos Cortes 42 D — COOL 129 0.138 88.3 7.5% 16.4%vs RHP 400 4.8% 0.0% 10.5% 23

7 Jeff Mcneil 35 D — WARM 174 0.103 86.5 4.1% 11.8%vs RHP 380 6.1% 14.3% 9.4% 43

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 3 0.251 92.8 10.6% 41.0%vs RHP 415 25.3% 25.0% 32.4% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 55 C — · 39 0.159 91.2 9.2% 18.0%vs RHP 391 13.0% 30.0% 20.7% 27

3 Richie Palacios 50 C — HOT 62 0.144 86.3 6.0% 20.0%vs RHP 385 9.3% 55.6% 19.2% 25

4 Yandy Diaz 45 D — WARM 97 0.162 91.1 7.9% 24.6%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 45

5 Cedric Mullins 44 D — COOL 112 0.140 87.8 6.0% 16.1%vs RHP 387 11.2% 0.0% 10.5% 20

6 Jonny Deluca 42 D — COOL 126 0.152 85.4 5.3% 22.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 25

7 Nick Fortes 39 D — COOL 146 0.108 85.3 4.2% 19.1%vs RHP 390 5.3% 16.7% 15.6% 12

8 Chandler Simpson 22 D — COOL 220 0.048 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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