TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.16×

PHI @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:45p

+8 ↑

7:45p

+7 ↑

8:45p

+7 ↑

9:45p

+7 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 7:45p at +8

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 20 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 31 · vs Kent → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 5

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — C ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

FADE Jackson Kent LHP · WSH

leak 3

0.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 28.0% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Kent — 0.279 · 92.4 · 11.5% 33.3% 28.0% F B O B 74

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Sánchez — 0.230 · 89.7 · 8.5% 25.0% 15.5% F B O C 58

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Kent — 0.229 · 90.5 · 9.3% 8.3% 11.5% F B O C+ 60

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Sánchez — 0.254 · 95.1 · 12.0% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C+ 65

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Sánchez Edge — 0.172 · 88.0 · 6.0% 14.3% 17.5% F B O D 46

· PHI Trea Turner vs Kent Edge — 0.144 · 88.3 · 7.2% 16.7% 8.3% F B O D 48

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Sánchez Edge — 0.149 · 90.3 · 8.1% 10.0% 12.9% F B O D 47

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Kent Edge — 0.142 · 90.6 · 7.0% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 47

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Kent — 0.088 · 87.2 · 3.5% 11.1% 6.0% F B O D 35

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Sánchez Edge — 0.034 · 85.1 · 2.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 25

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.140 · 87.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 41

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Sánchez — 0.182 · 88.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 48

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Kent — 0.148 · 89.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 48

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Kent Edge — 0.135 · 89.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Kent — 0.141 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 44

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Sánchez — 0.091 · 82.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Abrams Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber — · 74

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 5 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

73°F

6:45p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

7:45p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

67°F

8:45p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

66°F

9:45p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

64°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 73°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 0.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 74 B — · 1 0.279 92.4 11.5% 36.8%vs LHP 403 23.6% 33.3% 28.0% 32

2 Bryce Harper 60 C+ — · 21 0.229 90.5 9.3% 10.3%vs LHP 403 17.9% 8.3% 11.5% 29

3 Trea Turner 48 D — · 79 0.144 88.3 7.2% 7.7%vs LHP 390 12.8% 16.7% 8.3% 40

4 Brandon Marsh 48 D — COOL 80 0.148 89.2 8.0% 17.6%vs LHP 391 10.6% 0.0% 8.2% 21

5 Alec Bohm 47 D — HOT 90 0.142 90.6 7.0% 17.5%vs LHP 394 10.2% 10.0% 9.4% 28

6 Bryson Stott 44 D — COOL 116 0.141 89.2 6.9% 10.0%vs LHP 393 7.2% 0.0% 7.0% 29

7 J.T. Realmuto 42 D — WARM 125 0.135 89.8 6.8% 6.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 24

8 Justin Crawford 35 D — WARM 180 0.088 87.2 3.5% 4.7% 395 2.8% 11.1% 6.0% 22

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 65 C+ — COOL 8 0.254 95.1 12.0% 40.9%vs LHP 413 23.6% 0.0% 19.4% 25

2 Cj Abrams 58 C — WARM 26 0.230 89.7 8.5% 23.3%vs LHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 15.5% 30

3 Daylen Lile 48 D — WARM 78 0.182 88.8 8.2% 3.7%vs LHP 400 11.3% 0.0% 9.2% 25

4 Dylan Crews 47 D — · 89 0.149 90.3 8.1% 22.2%vs LHP 407 13.4% 10.0% 12.9% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 46 D — WARM 95 0.172 88.0 6.0% 21.4%vs LHP 380 11.0% 14.3% 17.5% 17

6 Jacob Young 41 D — COOL 138 0.140 87.6 6.4% 8.8%vs LHP 399 6.4% 0.0% 10.1% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 33 D — COOL 191 0.091 82.8 4.9% 4.3% 392 2.4% 0.0% 6.7% 15

8 Nasim Nunez 25 D — WARM 217 0.034 85.1 2.5% 5.0%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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