TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.97×

DET @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph slight_out 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:07p

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8:07p

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11:07p

conditions build late — the 11:07p window peaks +3

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 36 · vs Anderson ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 31 · vs Fisher → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 96

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●●○○○

3 Vladimir Guerrero — D ●○○○○

FADE Braydon Fisher RHP · TOR

leak 45

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●●

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 30.9% · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Anderson — 0.228 · 90.6 · 10.7% 41.7% 30.9% F B O C+ 62

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Fisher — 0.190 · 89.3 · 10.6% 37.5% 25.0% F B O C 55

· DET Riley Greene vs Fisher Edge — 0.201 · 90.4 · 11.9% 23.1% 20.1% F B O C 56

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Fisher — 0.212 · 88.4 · 9.7% 10.0% 16.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Anderson — 0.165 · 88.6 · 7.4% 10.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· DET Colt Keith vs Fisher Edge — 0.145 · 88.9 · 8.5% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Fisher Edge — 0.152 · 87.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 43

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Fisher — 0.155 · 89.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 44

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Fisher — 0.113 · 86.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Anderson — 0.100 · 90.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Anderson Edge — 0.116 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Anderson — 0.109 · 84.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 30

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Anderson — 0.109 · 86.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.118 · 85.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Fisher Edge — 0.098 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Braydon Fisher — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Drew Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Greene Torkelson Dingler Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kazuma Okamoto — · 62

Spencer Torkelson — · 55

Riley Greene — · 56

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph slight_out 74°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

7:07p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:07p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:07p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:07p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

69°F

11:07p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 74°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Braydon Fisher · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 56 C — WARM 33 0.201 90.4 11.9% 17.6%vs RHP 399 13.2% 23.1% 20.1% 33

2 Spencer Torkelson 55 C — · 38 0.190 89.3 10.6% 25.6%vs RHP 392 15.1% 37.5% 25.0% 25

3 Dillon Dingler 53 C — · 45 0.212 88.4 9.7% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.6% 10.0% 16.7% 26

4 Hao-Yu Lee 44 D — COOL 109 0.155 89.7 8.7% 20.7%vs RHP 399 14.3% 0.0% 11.4% 20

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D — COOL 118 0.152 87.9 8.2% 11.5%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 13.6% 37

6 Colt Keith 41 D — WARM 131 0.145 88.9 8.5% 13.7%vs RHP 382 6.7% 10.0% 9.7% 17

7 Gleyber Torres 37 D — COOL 163 0.113 86.4 7.6% 14.0%vs RHP 393 8.2% 0.0% 8.9% 20

8 Zach Mckinstry 30 D — COOL 203 0.098 85.8 4.3% 5.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 18

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 62 C+ — WARM 15 0.228 90.6 10.7% 27.2%vs RHP 400 20.5% 41.7% 30.9% 28

2 George Springer 43 D — WARM 121 0.165 88.6 7.4% 19.3%vs RHP 394 11.4% 10.0% 12.1% 32

3 Vladimir Guerrero 35 D — WARM 176 0.100 90.5 7.6% 9.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 39

4 Nathan Lukes 33 D — · 187 0.116 87.0 4.5% 15.5%vs RHP 382 7.8% 0.0% 8.2% 38

5 Andres Gimenez 31 D — COOL 196 0.118 85.4 5.2% 9.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 34

6 Myles Straw 31 D — COOL 199 0.109 86.0 5.0% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 19

7 Ernie Clement 30 D — COOL 202 0.109 84.1 4.1% 5.6%vs RHP 376 6.5% 0.0% 7.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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