TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.98×

SEA @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 9 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:38p

+2 ↑

7:38p

+1 ↑

8:38p

+0 ↑

9:38p

-1 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +3

Best of game Zach Neto conv 22 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 21 · vs Johnson → edge: Randy Arozarena

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 91

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 90

1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●○○

2 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

3 Cal Raleigh — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randy Arozarena: Match 19.3% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto vs Gilbert — 0.200 · 89.7 · 10.7% 25.0% 19.8% F B O C 50

· SEA Randy Arozarena ✶ vs Johnson — 0.200 · 90.8 · 8.8% 23.1% 19.3% F B O C 51

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Johnson Edge — 0.224 · 91.2 · 10.8% 15.4% 13.7% F B O C 54

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Johnson Edge — 0.184 · 90.0 · 11.9% 16.7% 10.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gilbert — 0.144 · 87.7 · 8.3% 16.7% 12.0% F B O D 37

· LAA Josh Lowe HOT vs Gilbert Edge — 0.148 · 88.6 · 9.1% 12.5% 10.3% F B O D 38

· LAA Mike Trout vs Gilbert — 0.185 · 90.1 · 12.5% 8.3% 11.2% F B O D 47

· SEA Cole Young vs Johnson Edge — 0.142 · 88.3 · 7.1% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 39

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Johnson — 0.153 · 90.3 · 9.3% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 44

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.123 · 87.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 34

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Johnson Edge — 0.093 · 87.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Gilbert — 0.113 · 87.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.093 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Logan Gilbert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Raleigh Neto Grissom

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Zach Neto — · 50

Randy Arozarena — · 51

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 9 mph out 74°F open

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

6:38p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

72°F

7:38p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

68°F

9:38p

-1

↑

6 mph · out

67°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 74°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 54 C — · 43 0.224 91.2 10.8% 23.9%vs RHP 403 15.2% 15.4% 13.7% 41

2 Randy Arozarena ✶ 51 C — WARM 54 0.200 90.8 8.8% 24.2%vs RHP 387 15.8% 23.1% 19.3% 35

3 Cal Raleigh 51 C — · 58 0.184 90.0 11.9% 16.3%vs RHP 383 16.3% 16.7% 10.2% 30

4 Julio Rodríguez 44 D — WARM 115 0.153 90.3 9.3% 20.0%vs RHP 404 14.9% 7.7% 8.3% 41

5 Cole Young 39 D — WARM 148 0.142 88.3 7.1% 18.7%vs RHP 384 11.3% 9.1% 8.2% 32

6 J.P. Crawford 34 D — COOL 181 0.123 87.7 7.6% 20.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 40

7 Josh Naylor 31 D — · 200 0.093 87.1 6.5% 10.3%vs RHP 392 5.5% 0.0% 6.7% 46

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 50 C — · 61 0.200 89.7 10.7% 19.4%vs RHP 404 16.9% 25.0% 19.8% 30

2 Mike Trout 47 D — WARM 87 0.185 90.1 12.5% 22.2%vs RHP 409 13.3% 8.3% 11.2% 23

3 Josh Lowe 38 D — HOT 155 0.148 88.6 9.1% 18.6%vs RHP 394 9.7% 12.5% 10.3% 7

4 Vaughn Grissom 37 D — COOL 162 0.144 87.7 8.3% 20.8%vs RHP 388 9.6% 16.7% 12.0% 29

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D — COOL 201 0.113 87.3 7.9% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.8% 0.0% 6.5% 11

6 Wade Meckler 27 D — COOL 212 0.093 87.0 5.5% 8.8%vs RHP 396 5.4% 0.0% 6.3% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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