TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.62×

SD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 15 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

6:40p

+11 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +16

Best of game Manny Machado conv 29 · vs Freeland ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 56 · vs Buehler → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 90

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis — C ●●○○○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 90

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield — D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

3 Mickey Moniak — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 30.3% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Freeland Edge — 0.191 · 90.4 · 10.2% 36.4% 22.1% F B O C 59

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Buehler — 0.279 · 90.1 · 11.1% 20.0% 30.3% F B O C+ 67

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Buehler Edge — 0.244 · 89.4 · 8.9% 14.3% 22.2% F B O C 57

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Freeland — 0.190 · 91.4 · 11.5% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C 57

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Freeland Edge — 0.170 · 93.0 · 11.4% 0.0% 27.5% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France vs Freeland Edge — 0.214 · 92.0 · 10.1% 10.0% 16.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Buehler Edge — 0.158 · 84.2 · 6.3% 100.0% 12.5% F B O D 43

· COL Kyle Karros vs Buehler — 0.161 · 89.3 · 8.3% 16.7% 18.1% F B O D 47

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Buehler Edge — 0.175 · 87.4 · 6.5% 18.2% 11.0% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Buehler — 0.124 · 87.5 · 7.3% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Freeland — 0.078 · 87.0 · 5.4% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Buehler Edge — 0.186 · 85.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 44

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Freeland Edge — 0.114 · 87.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.100 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.115 · 89.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Freeland — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill France Tatis Goodman Moniak Karros Carrigg Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Freeland fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado — · 59

Hunter Goodman — · 67

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 15 mph out 72°F open

+16

↑

15 mph · out

72°F

6:40p · peak

+11

↑

11 mph · out

72°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.62× 72°F, wind 15 mph S (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 59 C — WARM 24 0.191 90.4 10.2% 15.2%vs LHP 397 18.2% 36.4% 22.1% 28

2 Jackson Merrill 57 C — HOT 31 0.190 91.4 11.5% 14.3%vs LHP 410 16.2% 16.7% 17.0% 39

3 Ty France 56 C — · 34 0.214 92.0 10.1% 23.8%vs LHP 390 15.2% 10.0% 16.3% 22

4 Fernando Tatis 51 C — WARM 52 0.170 93.0 11.4% 50.0%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 27.5% 35

5 Freddy Fermin 38 D — HOT 154 0.114 87.7 6.4% 11.1%vs LHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 10.6% 7

6 Xander Bogaerts 38 D — COOL 159 0.100 89.3 7.6% 3.7%vs LHP 400 7.1% 0.0% 7.5% 31

7 Jake Cronenworth 34 D — COOL 183 0.078 87.0 5.4% 10.0%vs LHP 382 3.0% 10.0% 7.1% 27

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 5 0.279 90.1 11.1% 36.0%vs RHP 408 23.8% 20.0% 30.3% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C — · 29 0.244 89.4 8.9% 23.2%vs RHP 416 16.7% 14.3% 22.2% 16

3 Kyle Karros 47 D — WARM 81 0.161 89.3 8.3% 19.5%vs RHP 418 10.9% 16.7% 18.1% 13

4 Cole Carrigg 45 D — WARM 104 0.175 87.4 6.5% 12.5%vs RHP 405 8.9% 18.2% 11.0% 30

5 Jake Mccarthy 44 D — WARM 106 0.186 85.5 6.7% 15.5%vs RHP 415 10.5% 0.0% 12.2% 39

6 Tj Rumfield 43 D — HOT 120 0.158 84.2 6.3% 12.4%vs RHP 412 10.5% 100.0% 12.5% 32

7 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D — COOL 133 0.124 87.5 7.3% 14.5%vs RHP 404 7.9% 11.1% 12.0% 15

8 Troy Johnston 34 D — COOL 182 0.115 89.7 4.3% 4.0%vs RHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 7.1% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.