TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.67×

KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 10 mph out 90°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+15 ↑

7:10p

+15 ↑

8:10p

+14 ↑

9:10p

+13 ↑

10:10p

+13 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +15

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 34 · vs Brown ⟷ Isaac Paredes conv 29 · vs Wacha → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 86

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●●

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●○○○

3 Nick Loftin — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 14

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●○

2 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

3 Christian Walker — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 29.0% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ HOT vs Brown Edge — 0.219 · 91.4 · 9.0% 40.0% 29.0% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Wacha — 0.175 · 86.2 · 5.7% 33.3% 23.9% F B O C 52

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Wacha — 0.186 · 89.0 · 8.8% 30.0% 26.6% F B O C 57

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Wacha — 0.192 · 88.8 · 7.8% 9.1% 16.6% F B O C 54

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.210 · 93.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.280 · 94.2 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Brown Edge — 0.143 · 89.8 · 7.5% 18.2% 11.0% F B O D 48

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Wacha — 0.155 · 89.0 · 6.4% 11.1% 14.5% F B O D 47

· KC Nick Loftin vs Brown — 0.143 · 86.8 · 5.3% 10.0% 9.9% F B O D 43

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Wacha — 0.179 · 88.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 49

· KC Bobby Witt vs Brown — 0.168 · 92.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 49

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Wacha — 0.152 · 85.6 · 5.5% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez vs Brown — 0.151 · 89.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.157 · 89.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Wacha — 0.118 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 36

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Wacha Edge — 0.149 · 88.3 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 47

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.115 · 88.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael Wacha — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Smith Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Carter Jensen — · 63

Isaac Paredes — · 52

Cam Smith — · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.11× Wind 10 mph out 90°F retractable

+15

↑

10 mph · out

90°F

7:10p · peak

+15

↑

10 mph · out

88°F

8:10p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

9:10p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.67× 90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 63 C+ — HOT 11 0.219 91.4 9.0% 20.4%vs RHP 399 17.6% 40.0% 29.0% 30

2 Jac Caglianone 57 C — COOL 30 0.210 93.1 9.5% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.3% 0.0% 18.1% 14

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — · 70 0.168 92.3 8.8% 15.9%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 35

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 48 D — WARM 75 0.143 89.8 7.5% 14.1%vs RHP 396 11.1% 18.2% 11.0% 38

5 Salvador Perez 44 D — WARM 107 0.151 89.1 8.2% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 42

6 Michael Massey 44 D — COOL 110 0.157 89.6 6.1% 9.6%vs RHP 399 6.9% 0.0% 10.6% 33

7 Nick Loftin 43 D — WARM 122 0.143 86.8 5.3% 11.1%vs RHP 397 8.6% 10.0% 9.9% 29

8 Isaac Collins 39 D — COOL 147 0.115 88.3 5.8% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.9% 0.0% 8.5% 23

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 60 C+ — COOL 18 0.280 94.2 10.4% 24.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 23

2 Cam Smith 57 C — COOL 28 0.186 89.0 8.8% 21.7%vs RHP 410 13.8% 30.0% 26.6% 26

3 Christian Walker 54 C — COOL 41 0.192 88.8 7.8% 23.3%vs RHP 393 16.5% 9.1% 16.6% 33

4 Isaac Paredes 52 C — WARM 49 0.175 86.2 5.7% 17.8%vs RHP 377 13.3% 33.3% 23.9% 34

5 Jeremy Peña 49 D — COOL 69 0.179 88.3 6.6% 27.3%vs RHP 387 14.6% 0.0% 16.1% 30

6 Yainer Diaz 47 D — WARM 84 0.155 89.0 6.4% 31.2%vs RHP 391 10.5% 11.1% 14.5% 29

7 Taylor Trammell 47 D — · 88 0.149 88.3 9.1% 17.9%vs RHP 413 10.4% 0.0% 9.6% 21

8 Jose Altuve 40 D — COOL 141 0.152 85.6 5.5% 18.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 39

9 Christian Vazquez 36 D — COOL 167 0.118 85.9 3.8% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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