TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.91×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -4

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 32 · vs Bachar ⟷ Ryan O'Hearn conv 34 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · PIT

leak 73

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●●

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 53

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●●●●

2 Bryan Reynolds — D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Lowe — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 25.5% · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Bachar Edge — 0.229 · 92.4 · 10.6% 37.5% 25.5% F B O C 59

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Bachar — 0.200 · 91.7 · 10.1% 25.0% 17.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.186 · 89.3 · 5.5% 50.0% 18.8% F B O D 40

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Bachar — 0.147 · 90.4 · 8.5% 40.0% 15.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Bachar Edge — 0.162 · 93.3 · 10.0% 20.0% 17.8% F B O D 47

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.146 · 89.1 · 8.9% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 43

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Bachar — 0.137 · 88.9 · 6.0% 22.2% 13.8% F B O D 38

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.176 · 90.1 · 8.0% 18.2% 14.2% F B O D 45

· PIT Bryan Reynolds HOT vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.163 · 91.1 · 7.2% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 38

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.216 · 90.9 · 7.0% 11.1% 13.3% F B O D 44

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.205 · 94.8 · 8.4% 8.3% 14.3% F B O D 46

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Misiorowski — 0.088 · 86.2 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 22

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.068 · 86.4 · 3.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 20

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.121 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· MIL Sal Frelick vs Bachar Edge — 0.091 · 86.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.092 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.086 · 85.6 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Contreras Turang Yelich Ortiz O'Hearn

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers — · 59

Ryan O'Hearn — · 40

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F open

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

6:40p · peak

-5

↑

3 mph · in

73°F

7:40p

-5

↑

3 mph · in

72°F

8:40p

-5

↑

3 mph · in

71°F

9:40p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 77°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 59 C — · 23 0.229 92.4 10.6% 28.1%vs RHP 401 20.3% 37.5% 25.5% 19

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C — COOL 44 0.200 91.7 10.1% 19.5%vs RHP 400 17.4% 25.0% 17.6% 45

3 Garrett Mitchell 47 D — WARM 82 0.162 93.3 10.0% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.5% 20.0% 17.8% 23

4 William Contreras 45 D — HOT 99 0.147 90.4 8.5% 15.7%vs RHP 408 11.9% 40.0% 15.4% 31

5 Brice Turang 45 D — COOL 100 0.176 90.1 8.0% 24.6%vs RHP 406 11.3% 18.2% 14.2% 32

6 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 119 0.146 89.1 8.9% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.9% 25.0% 12.8% 28

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D — WARM 152 0.137 88.9 6.0% 18.9%vs RHP 392 8.1% 22.2% 13.8% 26

8 David Hamilton 29 D — COOL 208 0.092 86.9 5.1% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.2% 0.0% 6.4% 14

9 Sal Frelick 28 D — WARM 210 0.091 86.1 4.5% 6.0%vs RHP 396 3.4% 0.0% 6.5% 25

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 46 D — COOL 92 0.205 94.8 8.4% 38.9%vs RHP 414 21.8% 8.3% 14.3% 31

2 Brandon Lowe 44 D — COOL 108 0.216 90.9 7.0% 25.3%vs RHP 390 16.7% 11.1% 13.3% 32

3 Ryan O'Hearn 40 D — COOL 142 0.186 89.3 5.5% 22.9%vs RHP 385 14.3% 50.0% 18.8% 8

4 Bryan Reynolds 38 D — HOT 156 0.163 91.1 7.2% 14.1%vs RHP 407 11.0% 16.7% 8.8% 40

5 Spencer Horwitz 28 D — COOL 209 0.121 86.9 5.1% 12.7%vs RHP 395 8.4% 0.0% 6.9% 29

6 Nick Gonzales 22 D — · 221 0.088 86.2 3.6% 8.9%vs RHP 397 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% 34

7 Jake Mangum 21 D — WARM 222 0.086 85.6 3.0% 8.1%vs RHP 393 4.0% 0.0% 6.4% 30

8 Jared Triolo 20 D — COOL 225 0.068 86.4 3.2% 7.4%vs RHP 409 2.4% 0.0% 7.1% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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