Lake Bachar
RHP
MIA
1
HRs Allowed
3.0%
HR Rate (Pool)
16.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.94
FIP
3.75
xFIP
+0.19
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.25
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
16.3%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
80th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
65.6%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.94
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
47th pctile
3.75
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.19
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
59th pctile
3.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
33
Pool Matchups
1
HRs Allowed (Pool)
1
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
3.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 6.2% | 0.5 | 96.8mph | 107.7mph | 34.0° | 413ft | Up +3.2pp |
| Last 15 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 4.2% | 0.33 | 92.9mph | 107.7mph | 34.0° | 413ft | Flat +1.2pp |
| Last 30 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 3.0% | 0.25 | 93.7mph | 107.7mph | 34.0° | 413ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
93.7
Avg Max EV
110.1
Max EV Allowed
21
Hard-Hit Proxy · 65.6%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
107.7
Avg HR EV
34.0°
Avg HR Launch
413
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Rafael Devers | 107.7mph | 107.7mph | 34° | 413ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-19 | Daniel Susac | 104.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Jung Hoo Lee | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Casey Schmitt | 102.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Bryan Reynolds | 110.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Yandy Díaz | 104.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Nick Fortes | 103.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Richie Palacios | 100.1mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Rafael Devers | #107 | 47 | loanDepot Park | 107.7mph | 34.0° | 413ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 228 | 32.4% | +0.2 | 84.7 | 38.3° | 3 |
| Slider | 174 | 24.7% | -3.0 | 83.1 | 5.5° | 2 |
| Sweeper | 127 | 18.0% | -1.6 | 86.0 | 9.4° | 0 |
| Curveball | 87 | 12.4% | -1.3 | 87.3 | 0.3° | 0 |
| Splitter | 73 | 10.4% | -0.8 | 70.5 | 9.5° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
65.6%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Daniel Susac | #214 | 16 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Jung Hoo Lee | #188 | 28 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Drew Gilbert | #183 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Rafael Devers | #107 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-19 | Casey Schmitt | #92 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Matt Chapman | #79 | 51 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Willy Adames | #72 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-19 | Bryce Eldridge | #38 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Jared Triolo | #231 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Jake Mangum | #211 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Nick Gonzales | #191 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Bryan Reynolds | #155 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Ryan O'Hearn | #129 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Endy Rodríguez | #126 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Spencer Horwitz | #83 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-13 | Brandon Lowe | #54 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Nick Fortes | #230 | 15 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Richie Palacios | #226 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Taylor Walls | #225 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Ben Williamson | #224 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Cedric Mullins | #139 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Yandy Díaz | #51 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Junior Caminero | #50 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Jonathan Aranda | #27 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Drew Millas | #185 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Dylan Crews | #143 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Jorbit Vivas | #131 | 42 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Luis García Jr. | #126 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Daylen Lile | #105 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Jacob Young | #46 | 59 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | CJ Abrams | #30 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Curtis Mead | #18 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-02 | James Wood | #6 | 77 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |