1
HRs allowed
3.0%
HR rate (pool)
16.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.94
FIP
3.75
xFIP
+0.19
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
76
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 76th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 107.7 EV · 413 ft
max EV allowed 110.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Lake Bachar.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
29.9%
84.9
36.0°
5
-0.3
Slider Breaking
22.3%
83.2
9.5°
3
-2.0
Sweeper Breaking
18.4%
86.6
9.0°
1
+1.0
Curveball Breaking
14.9%
83.6
-3.8°
0
-2.8
Splitter Offspeed
10.0%
72.9
12.0°
1
+0.6
Sinker Hard
4.5%
85.5
15.7°
0
-3.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups33
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate3.0%
Pool HR/game day0.25
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB16.3% 76
HR/9—
FIP3.94 45
xFIP3.75
FIP − xFIP+0.19 58
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Fastball
Hard · 29.9% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle36.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches303
Slider
Breaking · 22.3% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle9.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches226
Sweeper
Breaking · 18.4% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle9.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches187
Curveball
Breaking · 14.9% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle-3.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches151
Splitter
Offspeed · 10.0% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.9 mph
Avg launch angle12.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches102
Sinker
Hard · 4.5% usage
-3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle15.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches46
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Lake Bachar.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 107.7 EV · 413 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 4 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-19
8
1
107.7
2026-06-13
8
0
110.1
2026-06-06
8
0
104.0
2026-06-02
9
0
108.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Lake Bachar isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Lake Bachar isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
16
1
6%
9
0
0%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.