4
HRs allowed
4.3%
HR rate (pool)
18.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.41
FIP
4.05
xFIP
+0.36
FIP − xFIP gap
#11
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
79
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 79th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
9.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.3 EV · 405 ft
max EV allowed 113.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 7 — below the fade line
4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups93
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate4.3%
Pool HR/game day0.36
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB18.1% 79
HR/9—
FIP4.41 65
xFIP4.05
FIP − xFIP+0.36 70
Barrel% allowed9.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-23
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.3 EV · 405 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-20
9
0
113.8
2026-09-15
9
0
106.2
2026-09-09
9
1
110.0
2026-09-03
7
0
103.2
2026-08-29
8
0
102.8
2026-08-23
9
1
107.4
2026-08-16
9
1
106.3
2026-06-19
8
1
107.7
2026-06-13
8
0
110.1
2026-06-06
8
0
104.0
2026-06-02
9
0
108.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — PNC Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.923
Wind
9 mph from E
Temp
62°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
9
62°
-11
7:40p
9
60°
-12
8:40p
9
59°
-12
9:40p
9
58°
-12
10:40p
9
57°
-12
-12
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 9 mph from E
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
325ft
avg
CF
399ft
avg
RF
320ft
short
vs LHH → RF ▲ leans
351ft
3 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
370ft
1 HR allowed · deep
Shortest: RF 320 ft
HRs allowed avg 405 ft · n=4
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
42
1
2%
16
1
6%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Lake Bachar
Is Lake Bachar likely to give up a home run tonight?
Lake Bachar pitches tonight (STL @ PIT at PNC Park). This season he has allowed 4 home runs across 11 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Lake Bachar allowed this season?
Lake Bachar has allowed 4 home runs across 11 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Lake Bachar?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Lake Bachar include Connor Wong (1), Max Muncy (LAD) (1), Munetaka Murakami (1) and 1 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.