TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.36×

MIA @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 12 mph out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:40p

+10 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +11

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 28 · vs Junk ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 24 · vs Soroka → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 63

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●○○

3 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 11

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: Match 20.3% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Soroka Edge — 0.218 · 92.4 · 10.0% 27.3% 20.3% F B O C 50

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Junk Edge — 0.228 · 91.8 · 9.3% 20.0% 12.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Junk — 0.206 · 85.0 · 6.6% 33.3% 21.7% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Soroka — 0.150 · 87.0 · 4.6% 23.1% 7.2% F B O D 33

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Junk — 0.167 · 89.1 · 7.3% 18.2% 10.6% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Soroka Edge — 0.114 · 87.4 · 5.3% 16.7% 6.2% F B O D 30

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Junk — 0.161 · 90.5 · 8.4% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 41

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.191 · 90.1 · 8.2% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 45

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Soroka — 0.225 · 91.2 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 43

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Junk — 0.094 · 87.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 30

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Junk — 0.106 · 86.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

· MIA Xavier Edwards vs Soroka Edge — 0.094 · 86.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Soroka — 0.135 · 89.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael Soroka — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Sanoja Carroll Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Stowers — · 50

Nolan Arenado — · 48

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 12 mph out 93°F retractable

+11

↑

12 mph · out

93°F

6:40p · peak

+10

↑

11 mph · out

91°F

7:40p

↑

9 mph · out

89°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · out

89°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

88°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 93°F, wind 12 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.69 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 50 C — WARM 60 0.218 92.4 10.0% 23.6%vs RHP 400 14.3% 27.3% 20.3% 23

2 Heriberto Hernández 43 D — · 117 0.225 91.2 10.4% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 33

3 Javier Sanoja 33 D — · 190 0.150 87.0 4.6% 10.0%vs RHP 383 8.5% 23.1% 7.2% 45

4 Otto Lopez 32 D — COOL 193 0.135 89.1 6.9% 8.5%vs RHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 6.4% 40

5 Jakob Marsee 30 D — WARM 206 0.114 87.4 5.3% 11.3%vs RHP 383 8.3% 16.7% 6.2% 37

6 Xavier Edwards 25 D — WARM 215 0.094 86.7 5.1% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.7% 0.0% 6.6% 3

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 51 C — WARM 57 0.228 91.8 9.3% 15.7%vs RHP 402 14.0% 20.0% 12.9% 20

2 Nolan Arenado 48 D — WARM 73 0.206 85.0 6.6% 21.9%vs RHP 388 16.4% 33.3% 21.7% 30

3 Ketel Marte 45 D — COOL 102 0.191 90.1 8.2% 14.6%vs RHP 408 14.5% 9.1% 10.5% 37

4 Gabriel Moreno 41 D — COOL 134 0.167 89.1 7.3% 14.3%vs RHP 397 10.8% 18.2% 10.6% 36

5 Tim Tawa 41 D — COOL 135 0.161 90.5 8.4% 24.4%vs RHP 399 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 25

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D — COOL 192 0.106 86.7 6.7% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.6% 0.0% 6.9% 11

7 Ildemaro Vargas 30 D — COOL 204 0.127 87.4 4.8% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 6.3% 29

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D — · 205 0.094 87.8 5.3% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0

9 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 207 0.112 87.4 4.3% 9.2%vs RHP 383 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.