TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.47×

BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:05p

+12 ↑

8:05p

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9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

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11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +12

Best of game Corey Seager conv 33 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Wilyer Abreu conv 11 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 62

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corey Seager — C+ ●●●●●

2 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

3 Jake Burger — C ●●●○○

FADE TEX Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 54

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●○○○

2 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 29.7% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager vs Sandoval — 0.206 · 91.8 · 10.0% 41.7% 25.0% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Sandoval — 0.250 · 92.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 29.7% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Jake Burger vs Sandoval Edge — 0.193 · 90.0 · 9.0% 16.7% 26.6% F B O C 55

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Sandoval Edge — 0.199 · 89.0 · 7.0% 16.7% 18.5% F B O C 51

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Proxy — 0.208 · 89.9 · 12.6% 9.1% 13.1% F B O C 58

· — Willson Contreras vs Proxy — 0.240 · 89.7 · 13.2% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Sandoval Edge — 0.171 · 88.9 · 6.4% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 46

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Sandoval — 0.126 · 88.0 · 5.9% 14.3% 6.9% F B O D 39

· — Jarren Duran vs Proxy — 0.156 · 89.8 · 9.6% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 49

· — Caleb Durbin vs Proxy — 0.135 · 83.4 · 2.9% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 35

· — Nick Sogard vs Proxy — 0.137 · 86.8 · 4.5% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 39

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Proxy — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Sandoval — 0.150 · 92.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· TEX Josh Jung COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.143 · 90.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Sandoval — 0.041 · 84.5 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Patrick Sandoval — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Langford Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Corey Seager — · 60

Joc Pederson — · 62

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 96°F retractable

+12

↑

8 mph · out

96°F

7:05p · peak

+12

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9 mph · out

95°F

8:05p

+11

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10 mph · out

93°F

9:05p

+10

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11 mph · slight_out

92°F

10:05p

+11

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11 mph · slight_out

90°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 96°F, wind 8 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 62 C+ — · 14 0.250 92.1 8.7% 24.8% 396 23.2% 33.3% 29.7% 16

2 Corey Seager 60 C+ — · 20 0.206 91.8 10.0% 25.0%vs LHP 397 18.9% 41.7% 25.0% 42

3 Jake Burger 55 C — WARM 37 0.193 90.0 9.0% 37.5%vs LHP 402 16.3% 16.7% 26.6% 24

4 Wyatt Langford 51 C — WARM 56 0.199 89.0 7.0% 12.5%vs LHP 401 15.5% 16.7% 18.5% 27

5 Ezequiel Duran 46 D — · 93 0.171 88.9 6.4% 16.0%vs LHP 397 13.1% 16.7% 12.5% 36

6 Brandon Nimmo 44 D — COOL 114 0.150 92.2 8.0% 14.7%vs LHP 404 9.4% 0.0% 9.5% 34

7 Josh Jung 42 D — COOL 130 0.143 90.4 6.4% 13.3%vs LHP 386 9.8% 0.0% 9.0% 9

8 Evan Carter 39 D — COOL 149 0.126 88.0 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 380 7.4% 14.3% 6.9% 19

9 Nicky Lopez 21 D — COOL 223 0.041 84.5 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.8% 0.0% 6.4% 15

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 63 C+ — WARM 22 0.240 89.7 13.2% 21.3% 405 19.0% 0.0% 21.2% 3

2 Wilyer Abreu 58 C — · 40 0.208 89.9 12.6% 12.2% 406 15.9% 9.1% 13.1% 34

3 Jarren Duran 49 D — · 96 0.156 89.8 9.6% 16.0% 401 13.9% 10.0% 10.3% 27

4 Andruw Monasterio 42 D — COOL 150 0.145 87.7 6.7% 5.9% 390 10.0% 0.0% 10.3% 6

5 Nick Sogard 39 D — · 173 0.137 86.8 4.5% 8.2% 387 10.9% 9.1% 8.1% 28

6 Caleb Durbin 35 D — WARM 194 0.135 83.4 2.9% 10.7% 376 8.6% 9.1% 8.3% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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