TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.49×

CLE @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 11 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:35p

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best window is early — 7:35p at +10

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 29 · vs Griffin ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 19 · vs Baz → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 82

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 19

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana +525 D ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●●●○○

3 Patrick Bailey +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: Match 33.2% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Coby Mayo ✶ COOL vs Griffin Edge +350 0.236 · 91.5 · 10.6% 25.0% 33.2% F B O C+ 60

· — Pete Alonso vs Griffin Edge +330 0.227 · 94.1 · 11.0% 21.4% 21.2% F B O C+ 61

· — Samuel Basallo COOL vs Griffin — 0.190 · 90.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Baz Edge +525 0.136 · 87.7 · 5.6% 30.0% 7.6% F B O D 38

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Baz Edge +950 0.131 · 86.9 · 4.5% 25.0% 11.8% F B O D 36

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Baz Edge +700 0.122 · 90.4 · 6.8% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 37

· — Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Griffin +425 0.176 · 89.4 · 7.8% 7.1% 15.4% F B O D 47

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Baz Edge — 0.183 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 19.0% F B O D 39

· — Colton Cowser vs Griffin — 0.151 · 88.0 · 9.5% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 46

· — Leody Taveras vs Griffin Edge +850 0.130 · 88.3 · 6.0% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 37

· — Jackson Holliday vs Griffin +625 0.117 · 87.0 · 7.8% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Baz Edge +430 0.164 · 91.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 38

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Baz Edge +500 0.140 · 89.0 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Baz Edge — 0.060 · 83.7 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Rocchio Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo +350 · 60

Pete Alonso +330 · 61

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 11 mph out 84°F open

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

6:35p

+10

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

7:35p · peak

+10

↑

11 mph · out

78°F

8:35p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

9:35p

↑

9 mph · out

75°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 84°F, wind 11 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 39 D — · 144 0.183 87.5 6.9% 22.7%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 19

2 Chase Delauter 38 D +430 · 154 0.164 91.3 6.3% 19.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 24

3 Travis Bazzana 38 D +525 COOL 160 0.136 87.7 5.6% 15.2%vs RHP 396 11.3% 30.0% 7.6% 22

4 Patrick Bailey 37 D +700 COOL 163 0.122 90.4 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 409 7.1% 14.3% 10.8% 14

5 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +950 · 169 0.131 86.9 4.5% 11.4%vs RHP 384 8.8% 25.0% 11.8% 31

6 Jose Ramirez 32 D +500 COOL 188 0.140 89.0 5.3% 8.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 38

7 Steven Kwan 20 D — WARM 216 0.060 83.7 1.8% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 6.0% 41

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +330 · 19 0.227 94.1 11.0% 21.4%vs LHP 402 21.4% 21.4% 21.2% 30

2 Coby Mayo ✶ 60 C+ +350 COOL 20 0.236 91.5 10.6% 40.5%vs LHP 412 17.1% 25.0% 33.2% 27

3 Samuel Basallo 50 C — COOL 62 0.190 90.5 10.5% 20.0%vs LHP 399 13.8% 0.0% 13.4% 24

4 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +425 COOL 81 0.176 89.4 7.8% 32.0%vs LHP 393 14.0% 7.1% 15.4% 37

5 Colton Cowser 46 D — WARM 91 0.151 88.0 9.5% 14.3%vs LHP 412 15.4% 9.1% 9.9% 23

6 Jackson Holliday 38 D +625 · 158 0.117 87.0 7.8% 7.7%vs LHP 389 4.7% 9.1% 7.8% 32

7 Leody Taveras 37 D +850 WARM 165 0.130 88.3 6.0% 6.2%vs LHP 403 4.8% 9.1% 8.2% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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