TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.65×

HOU @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 11 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

6:40p

+15 ↑

7:40p

+14 ↑

8:40p

+14 ↑

9:40p

+14 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +15

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 37 · vs Brown ⟷ Christian Walker conv 16 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 88

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +255 B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +475 C ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 5

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Christian Walker +525 C ●●●○○

2 Jeremy Peña +750 D ●●○○○

3 Cam Smith +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 40.0% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Brown Edge +255 0.287 · 92.4 · 10.6% 33.3% 40.0% F B O B 72

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Sánchez Edge +525 0.195 · 89.1 · 7.7% 16.7% 16.1% F B O C 51

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Brown Edge +475 0.228 · 90.4 · 8.5% 8.3% 20.7% F B O C 59

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Sánchez +305 0.285 · 94.4 · 10.5% 0.0% 20.6% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Sánchez Edge +750 0.185 · 88.3 · 6.6% 15.4% 16.5% F B O D 48

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Sánchez Edge +625 0.175 · 89.1 · 8.7% 11.1% 13.9% F B O D 48

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Sánchez Edge +850 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.5% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Brown +850 0.142 · 90.5 · 6.3% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 45

· PHI Trea Turner vs Brown +700 0.138 · 88.4 · 6.4% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Brown Edge +750 0.144 · 89.2 · 6.2% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 43

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Sánchez Edge +525 0.162 · 86.0 · 5.7% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 41

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Sánchez Edge +850 0.153 · 85.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 36

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Brown Edge +700 0.151 · 89.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 46

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Brown +850 0.130 · 89.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.121 · 86.0 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Brown Edge — 0.082 · 87.3 · 2.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 32

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Sánchez — 0.156 · 87.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Peña Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +255 · 72

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 11 mph out 80°F open

+15

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

6:40p · peak

+15

↑

11 mph · out

77°F

7:40p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

75°F

8:40p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.65× 80°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 57 C +305 COOL 29 0.285 94.4 10.5% 21.4%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 30

2 Christian Walker 51 C +525 COOL 54 0.195 89.1 7.7% 25.0%vs LHP 391 17.2% 16.7% 16.1% 33

3 Jeremy Peña 48 D +750 WARM 72 0.185 88.3 6.6% 12.5%vs LHP 387 15.5% 15.4% 16.5% 32

4 Cam Smith 48 D +625 COOL 78 0.175 89.1 8.7% 21.4%vs LHP 408 12.8% 11.1% 13.9% 21

5 Taylor Trammell 44 D — COOL 111 0.156 87.8 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 413 11.4% 0.0% 6.9% 23

6 Yainer Diaz 43 D +850 WARM 119 0.162 88.5 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 391 11.0% 12.5% 11.2% 22

7 Isaac Paredes 41 D +525 COOL 132 0.162 86.0 5.7% 3.2%vs LHP 375 11.6% 7.7% 9.8% 35

8 Jose Altuve 36 D +850 WARM 168 0.153 85.5 5.6% 20.0%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 34

9 Christian Vazquez 32 D — COOL 190 0.121 86.0 3.8% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 11

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 72 B +255 COOL 1 0.287 92.4 10.6% 42.4%vs RHP 403 23.7% 33.3% 40.0% 32

2 Bryce Harper 59 C +475 COOL 25 0.228 90.4 8.5% 34.8%vs RHP 402 17.9% 8.3% 20.7% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D +700 COOL 90 0.151 89.3 7.3% 18.4%vs RHP 391 10.9% 0.0% 11.6% 18

4 Alec Bohm 45 D +850 WARM 104 0.142 90.5 6.3% 13.3%vs RHP 394 10.5% 9.1% 9.6% 25

5 Trea Turner 44 D +700 WARM 112 0.138 88.4 6.4% 17.9%vs RHP 392 12.5% 8.3% 9.9% 38

6 Bryson Stott 43 D +750 · 117 0.144 89.2 6.2% 9.5%vs RHP 393 7.5% 8.3% 9.7% 30

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D +850 WARM 145 0.130 89.7 5.7% 17.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 21

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — WARM 191 0.082 87.3 2.9% 4.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 8.1% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.