TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ DET

Neutral air · 1.03×

MIN @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 9 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+2 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +2

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 23 · vs Matthews ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 28 · vs Montero → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +425 C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene +350 C ●●●●○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 37

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●●●○

2 Brooks Lee +575 D ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach +750 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 22.2% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Montero Edge +400 0.225 · 92.4 · 9.1% 33.3% 22.2% F B O C 55

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Matthews +425 0.188 · 89.3 · 11.4% 22.2% 24.1% F B O C 55

· DET Riley Greene vs Matthews Edge +350 0.196 · 90.4 · 12.7% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C 56

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Matthews +500 0.212 · 88.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Montero Edge +575 0.187 · 88.3 · 5.5% 25.0% 16.3% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Montero Edge +750 0.160 · 87.9 · 7.2% 18.2% 14.7% F B O D 41

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Matthews — 0.148 · 89.7 · 9.6% 8.3% 11.0% F B O D 45

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Montero +390 0.165 · 89.8 · 8.9% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 44

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Montero Edge +500 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.2% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 42

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Montero +850 0.113 · 85.6 · 5.0% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 31

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Montero Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 31

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Matthews +750 0.112 · 86.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Matthews Edge +525 0.140 · 89.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Matthews Edge +500 0.141 · 88.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 42

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Matthews Edge +950 0.100 · 85.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Keider Montero — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Zebby Matthews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Larnach Greene Torkelson

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens +400 · 55

Spencer Torkelson +425 · 55

Riley Greene +350 · 56

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 9 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

74°F

1:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

74°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

74°F

3:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

4:10p

-1

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 75°F, wind 9 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 55 C +400 · 39 0.225 92.4 9.1% 20.4%vs RHP 391 18.4% 33.3% 22.2% 30

2 Brooks Lee 44 D +575 HOT 114 0.187 88.3 5.5% 20.9%vs RHP 374 16.5% 25.0% 16.3% 41

3 Royce Lewis 44 D +390 COOL 115 0.165 89.8 8.9% 15.9%vs RHP 402 13.9% 8.3% 9.9% 31

4 Josh Bell 42 D +500 COOL 126 0.165 89.9 8.2% 20.0%vs RHP 410 11.2% 8.3% 9.6% 35

5 Trevor Larnach 41 D +750 WARM 138 0.160 87.9 7.2% 14.8%vs RHP 391 9.8% 18.2% 14.7% 24

6 Victor Caratini 31 D — WARM 200 0.102 89.5 6.7% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 3

7 Luke Keaschall 31 D +850 WARM 202 0.113 85.6 5.0% 10.3%vs RHP 378 7.1% 8.3% 7.3% 38

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 56 C +350 WARM 34 0.196 90.4 12.7% 17.5%vs RHP 401 12.9% 25.0% 21.2% 19

2 Spencer Torkelson 55 C +425 · 38 0.188 89.3 11.4% 25.7%vs RHP 392 14.7% 22.2% 24.1% 19

3 Dillon Dingler 53 C +500 COOL 44 0.212 88.5 10.2% 27.2%vs RHP 398 17.4% 0.0% 16.4% 29

4 Hao-Yu Lee 45 D — · 106 0.148 89.7 9.6% 24.0%vs RHP 399 15.4% 8.3% 11.0% 22

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 42 D +500 COOL 127 0.141 88.0 8.7% 9.6%vs RHP 395 18.2% 0.0% 8.1% 37

6 Colt Keith 40 D +525 COOL 143 0.140 89.0 8.8% 13.0%vs RHP 385 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% 12

7 Gleyber Torres 38 D +750 WARM 161 0.112 86.5 8.2% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.3% 0.0% 8.7% 28

8 Zach Mckinstry 31 D +950 COOL 203 0.100 85.7 4.7% 5.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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