TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.61×

TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 3:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 7 mph cross 94°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

12:05p

+8 ↑

1:05p

+9 ↑

2:05p

+10 ↑

3:05p

+10 ↑

4:05p

conditions build late — the 3:05p window peaks +10

Best of game Zack Gelof conv 28 · vs Fisher ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 32 · vs Basso → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Braydon Fisher RHP · TOR

leak 92

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

FADE Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 67

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 30.5% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Basso Edge — 0.216 · 90.6 · 9.3% 33.3% 30.5% F B O C+ 63

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Fisher — 0.211 · 89.2 · 9.3% 23.1% 32.9% F B O C+ 63

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Fisher Edge — 0.140 · 89.9 · 8.4% 15.4% 16.3% F B O C 50

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Fisher Edge — 0.176 · 88.0 · 7.8% 14.3% 14.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Basso Edge — 0.162 · 88.4 · 6.6% 18.2% 14.2% F B O D 48

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Fisher — 0.120 · 91.1 · 8.2% 15.4% 15.7% F B O D 49

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Basso — 0.120 · 87.0 · 4.1% 16.7% 8.3% F B O D 40

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Fisher Edge — 0.104 · 86.5 · 4.2% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Fisher Edge — 0.135 · 88.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Basso Edge — 0.093 · 90.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.110 · 84.0 · 3.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.111 · 86.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Basso — 0.119 · 85.5 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Basso — 0.159 · 90.9 · 8.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brady Basso — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Braydon Fisher — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Gelof Heim Butler Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Fisher fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto — · 63

Zack Gelof — · 63

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 12:05p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 7 mph cross 94°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

88°F

12:05p

↑

7 mph · cross

94°F

1:05p

↑

7 mph · cross

100°F

2:05p

+10

↑

6 mph · cross

100°F

3:05p · peak

+10

↑

6 mph · cross

101°F

4:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.61× 94°F, wind 7 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Basso · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 63 C+ — WARM 15 0.216 90.6 9.3% 22.9%vs LHP 401 18.9% 33.3% 30.5% 29

2 George Springer 48 D — WARM 74 0.162 88.4 6.6% 10.7%vs LHP 395 10.9% 18.2% 14.2% 33

3 Jesús Sánchez 47 D — COOL 87 0.159 90.9 8.4% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.0% 0.0% 7.0% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 40 D — WARM 142 0.120 87.0 4.1% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.0% 16.7% 8.3% 39

5 Vladimir Guerrero 39 D — WARM 149 0.093 90.5 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 43

6 Andres Gimenez 36 D — WARM 167 0.119 85.5 4.8% 12.5%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 25

7 Myles Straw 36 D — COOL 170 0.111 86.2 4.5% 5.3%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 24

8 Ernie Clement 35 D — COOL 177 0.110 84.0 3.7% 9.3%vs LHP 376 6.7% 0.0% 9.2% 36

vs Braydon Fisher · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 63 C+ — WARM 11 0.211 89.2 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 397 20.3% 23.1% 32.9% 37

2 Jonah Heim 51 C — WARM 52 0.176 88.0 7.8% 7.5%vs RHP 409 9.1% 14.3% 14.1% 33

3 Lawrence Butler 50 C — WARM 59 0.140 89.9 8.4% 19.6%vs RHP 408 8.7% 15.4% 16.3% 27

4 Henry Bolte 49 D — · 67 0.120 91.1 8.2% 4.3%vs RHP 395 10.8% 15.4% 15.7% 33

5 Carlos Cortes 45 D — COOL 102 0.135 88.5 7.4% 16.0%vs RHP 401 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 21

6 Jeff Mcneil 39 D — · 147 0.104 86.5 4.2% 12.7%vs RHP 380 6.4% 12.5% 9.3% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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