TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.01×

CHC @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph slight_out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+5 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +6

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Henderson ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 26 · vs Gausman → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 83

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +700 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Kelly +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 54

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +425 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +500 C ●●○○○

3 William Contreras +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 28.3% · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Henderson Edge +305 0.296 · 90.5 · 10.8% 38.5% 28.3% F B O C+ 64

· — Jackson Chourio COOL vs Gausman +425 0.190 · 91.8 · 9.4% 30.8% 21.1% F B O C 50

· — Jake Bauers COOL vs Gausman Edge +500 0.223 · 92.4 · 9.9% 11.1% 19.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Henderson +700 0.181 · 88.1 · 7.0% 23.1% 18.4% F B O D 43

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Henderson +750 0.125 · 87.3 · 6.8% 22.2% 10.5% F B O D 35

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Henderson +425 0.209 · 88.3 · 9.3% 15.4% 14.4% F B O D 48

· CHC Michael Busch vs Henderson Edge +425 0.154 · 88.5 · 8.8% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 41

· — William Contreras vs Gausman +575 0.135 · 90.2 · 7.6% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 38

· — Joey Ortiz vs Gausman — 0.134 · 88.9 · 5.5% 11.1% 8.7% F B O D 33

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Gausman Edge +950 0.167 · 90.1 · 7.2% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 39

· — Christian Yelich vs Gausman Edge +700 0.144 · 89.1 · 8.5% 10.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Henderson — 0.094 · 86.0 · 3.5% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 25

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Henderson Edge +500 0.194 · 89.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 46

· — Garrett Mitchell vs Gausman Edge +850 0.151 · 93.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.094 · 87.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kevin Gausman — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly Bauers Chourio Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 · 64

Jackson Chourio +425 · 50

Alex Bregman +700 · 43

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph slight_out 78°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

78°F

6:40p

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

8:40p

↑

9 mph · out

72°F

9:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 78°F, wind 7 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 64 C+ +305 HOT 10 0.296 90.5 10.8% 26.9%vs RHP 397 23.3% 38.5% 28.3% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 48 D +425 · 73 0.209 88.3 9.3% 20.0%vs RHP 406 16.3% 15.4% 14.4% 36

3 Ian Happ 46 D +500 COOL 89 0.194 89.2 9.9% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.4% 0.0% 12.9% 20

4 Alex Bregman 43 D +700 WARM 118 0.181 88.1 7.0% 18.3%vs RHP 390 12.6% 23.1% 18.4% 42

5 Michael Busch 41 D +425 · 131 0.154 88.5 8.8% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.1% 16.7% 10.9% 33

6 Carson Kelly 35 D +750 · 176 0.125 87.3 6.8% 9.5%vs RHP 403 8.7% 22.2% 10.5% 27

7 Nico Hoerner 25 D — WARM 214 0.094 86.0 3.5% 6.9%vs RHP 383 5.6% 7.7% 6.7% 41

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 52 C +500 COOL 45 0.223 92.4 9.9% 27.4%vs RHP 402 19.1% 11.1% 19.2% 15

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +425 COOL 64 0.190 91.8 9.4% 17.9%vs RHP 399 17.1% 30.8% 21.1% 45

3 Brice Turang 39 D +950 COOL 148 0.167 90.1 7.2% 24.6%vs RHP 407 10.1% 8.3% 10.3% 28

4 Garrett Mitchell 39 D +850 WARM 150 0.151 93.2 9.2% 22.2%vs RHP 415 7.0% 0.0% 9.1% 23

5 William Contreras 38 D +575 · 156 0.135 90.2 7.6% 12.7%vs RHP 413 9.9% 16.7% 9.8% 34

6 Christian Yelich 38 D +700 · 157 0.144 89.1 8.5% 20.0%vs RHP 400 8.2% 10.0% 8.5% 33

7 Joey Ortiz 33 D — · 186 0.134 88.9 5.5% 16.7%vs RHP 390 7.3% 11.1% 8.7% 26

8 David Hamilton 27 D — COOL 210 0.094 87.0 4.9% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 6.2% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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