TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.17×

TB @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:15p

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8:15p

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9:15p

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10:15p

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11:15p

the 9:15p window peaks +0

Best of game Matt Olson conv 15 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 32 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +390 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Ronald Acuna — C ●●○○○

FADE ATL Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 51

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +265 B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●●●

3 Jonathan Aranda +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 31.6% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy +265 0.248 · 93.0 · 12.9% 33.3% 31.6% F B O B 70

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Proxy +525 0.152 · 91.2 · 9.9% 27.3% 16.3% F B O C 52

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Jax Edge +390 0.258 · 92.5 · 11.5% 7.7% 21.5% F B O C+ 65

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.202 · 90.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 28.7% F B O C 51

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Jax — 0.189 · 90.5 · 10.6% 0.0% 24.4% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Jax Edge +425 0.172 · 91.6 · 10.5% 7.7% 14.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Proxy +950 0.132 · 86.2 · 4.0% 50.0% 13.4% F B O D 42

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Proxy +625 0.143 · 87.9 · 4.3% 12.5% 8.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Jax Edge +575 0.161 · 87.0 · 6.0% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 44

· ATL Austin Riley vs Jax +500 0.144 · 91.5 · 10.5% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 48

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Jax Edge — 0.123 · 87.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz HOT vs Proxy +525 0.162 · 91.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Jax Edge +625 0.147 · 90.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Proxy — 0.159 · 85.5 · 3.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 38

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Jax +950 0.122 · 86.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.099 · 85.1 · 2.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Olson Harris

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +265 · 70

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 84°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · in

82°F

7:15p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

79°F

8:15p

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3 mph · in

78°F

9:15p · peak

↑

2 mph · in

76°F

10:15p

↑

2 mph · in

75°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 84°F, wind 4 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATL Bullpen Proxy 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 70 B +265 · 5 0.248 93.0 12.9% 29.5% 414 25.5% 33.3% 31.6% 34

2 Jonathan Aranda 52 C +525 WARM 70 0.152 91.2 9.9% 13.6% 392 12.7% 27.3% 16.3% 30

3 Yandy Diaz 42 D +525 HOT 152 0.162 91.1 7.3% 18.4% 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 39

4 Richie Palacios 42 D +950 WARM 153 0.132 86.2 4.0% 10.0% 389 8.5% 50.0% 13.4% 22

5 Cedric Mullins 40 D +625 WARM 166 0.143 87.9 4.3% 8.5% 387 11.6% 12.5% 8.4% 25

6 Jonny Deluca 38 D — COOL 183 0.159 85.5 3.4% 10.7% 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 25

7 Nick Fortes 31 D — COOL 209 0.099 85.1 2.1% 6.0% 396 4.1% 0.0% 7.4% 9

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 218 0.050 83.6 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 43

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 65 C+ +390 COOL 8 0.258 92.5 11.5% 29.5%vs RHP 408 22.6% 7.7% 21.5% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +425 · 42 0.172 91.6 10.5% 22.7%vs RHP 402 15.2% 7.7% 14.1% 35

3 Michael Harris 51 C — COOL 47 0.202 90.5 9.8% 25.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 28.7% 32

4 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 56 0.189 90.5 10.6% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 34

5 Austin Riley 48 D +500 · 76 0.144 91.5 10.5% 17.7%vs RHP 409 9.1% 8.3% 10.1% 27

6 Ozzie Albies 44 D +575 · 110 0.161 87.0 6.0% 13.0%vs RHP 387 13.1% 7.7% 11.6% 38

7 Mike Yastrzemski 43 D +625 COOL 120 0.147 90.6 7.7% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.6% 0.0% 10.9% 16

8 Dominic Smith 41 D — WARM 130 0.123 87.8 7.0% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.9% 0.0% 12.0% 3

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +950 COOL 175 0.122 86.4 5.8% 10.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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