TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.25×

WSH @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 97°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+2 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +2

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 20 · vs Buehler ⟷ Ty France conv 17 · vs Kent → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 77

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +425 C ●●●○○

2 Daylen Lile +575 D ●●●○○

3 Keibert Ruiz +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Jackson Kent LHP · WSH

leak 33

0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +625 D ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado +475 D ●●○○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 17.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Buehler Edge +425 0.233 · 89.6 · 9.1% 25.0% 15.2% F B O C 52

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Buehler Edge +350 0.265 · 95.4 · 13.0% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SD Ty France vs Kent Edge +625 0.218 · 91.9 · 8.8% 16.7% 17.6% F B O D 49

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Buehler Edge +575 0.184 · 88.7 · 8.7% 15.4% 17.2% F B O D 45

· SD Manny Machado vs Kent Edge +475 0.192 · 90.5 · 9.0% 18.2% 13.5% F B O D 48

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Buehler Edge +950 0.166 · 88.3 · 6.0% 14.3% 10.3% F B O D 38

· SD Fernando Tatis COOL vs Kent Edge — 0.167 · 92.9 · 10.1% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 41

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Buehler +575 0.151 · 90.4 · 8.7% 8.3% 8.6% F B O D 41

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Kent +575 0.174 · 91.2 · 9.8% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 45

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Kent +950 0.081 · 87.0 · 4.9% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 27

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Buehler — 0.142 · 87.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Kent Edge — 0.108 · 87.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Kent Edge +850 0.101 · 89.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 31

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Buehler Edge — 0.034 · 85.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Lile France Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 97°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

95°F

1:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

97°F

2:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

96°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

95°F

4:10p

-1

↑

6 mph · slight_out

94°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 97°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 60 C+ +350 WARM 21 0.265 95.4 13.0% 35.6%vs RHP 413 24.5% 0.0% 17.2% 15

2 Cj Abrams 52 C +425 · 46 0.233 89.6 9.1% 28.1%vs RHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 15.2% 26

3 Daylen Lile 45 D +575 HOT 98 0.184 88.7 8.7% 14.1%vs RHP 400 11.6% 15.4% 17.2% 30

4 Dylan Crews 41 D +575 COOL 133 0.151 90.4 8.7% 11.6%vs RHP 407 13.9% 8.3% 8.6% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 38 D +950 COOL 155 0.166 88.3 6.0% 9.8%vs RHP 377 10.0% 14.3% 10.3% 17

6 Jacob Young 35 D — COOL 180 0.142 87.7 7.0% 12.1%vs RHP 399 6.7% 0.0% 8.2% 22

7 Nasim Nunez 18 D — WARM 217 0.034 85.0 2.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 21

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 49 D +625 · 66 0.218 91.9 8.8% 25.0%vs LHP 390 15.7% 16.7% 17.6% 29

2 Manny Machado 48 D +475 WARM 75 0.192 90.5 9.0% 16.1%vs LHP 398 17.4% 18.2% 13.5% 30

3 Jackson Merrill 45 D +575 WARM 105 0.174 91.2 9.8% 12.9%vs LHP 412 15.3% 8.3% 7.9% 35

4 Fernando Tatis 41 D — COOL 129 0.167 92.9 10.1% 50.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 31 D +850 WARM 198 0.101 89.3 6.9% 4.0%vs LHP 400 7.4% 0.0% 5.7% 27

6 Freddy Fermin 30 D — HOT 205 0.108 87.6 5.7% 11.1%vs LHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 6.4% 9

7 Jake Cronenworth 27 D +950 COOL 211 0.081 87.0 4.9% 11.1%vs LHP 382 3.2% 9.1% 5.8% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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