TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.37×

CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph slight_out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +7

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 30 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 16 · vs Lowder → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 82

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +625 C ●●●●○

3 Sal Stewart +425 C ●●●●○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 64

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +390 C+ ●●○○○

2 Mookie Betts +525 C ●●○○○

3 Tommy Edman +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 26.6% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Yamamoto Edge +500 0.216 · 94.4 · 9.9% 33.3% 26.6% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Yamamoto +625 0.175 · 91.0 · 9.0% 30.0% 21.4% F B O C 51

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Yamamoto +425 0.213 · 90.1 · 9.2% 25.0% 26.0% F B O C 57

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Lowder Edge +390 0.238 · 90.4 · 10.9% 14.3% 17.6% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Lowder +525 0.177 · 90.1 · 8.2% 15.4% 12.0% F B O C 50

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Lowder Edge +210 0.245 · 93.2 · 11.9% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Yamamoto +400 0.215 · 88.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 28.4% F B O D 48

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Lowder Edge +575 0.141 · 88.1 · 7.0% 15.4% 8.4% F B O D 44

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.114 · 89.3 · 5.3% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 37

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Lowder Edge +400 0.158 · 89.5 · 8.6% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 48

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Lowder Edge +525 0.129 · 88.7 · 7.0% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 42

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +425 0.207 · 88.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 49

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Yamamoto +625 0.158 · 88.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Lowder +400 0.152 · 90.3 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Stephenson Suarez Muncy Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz +500 · 60

Tyler Stephenson +625 · 51

Sal Stewart +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph slight_out 92°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

92°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

87°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 92°F, wind 4 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 60 C+ +500 HOT 23 0.216 94.4 9.9% 20.9%vs RHP 400 17.6% 33.3% 26.6% 30

2 Sal Stewart 57 C +425 · 30 0.213 90.1 9.2% 23.7%vs RHP 397 17.7% 25.0% 26.0% 37

3 Tyler Stephenson 51 C +625 · 48 0.175 91.0 9.0% 21.7%vs RHP 392 10.4% 30.0% 21.4% 24

4 Jj Bleday 49 D +425 COOL 65 0.207 88.5 8.2% 21.8%vs RHP 389 16.7% 0.0% 15.3% 30

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +400 WARM 71 0.215 88.4 8.7% 28.6%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% 19

6 Matt Mclain 43 D +625 COOL 116 0.158 88.4 7.9% 12.9%vs RHP 391 11.1% 0.0% 14.3% 29

7 Dane Myers 37 D — COOL 164 0.114 89.3 5.3% 11.1%vs RHP 384 6.2% 12.5% 8.3% 25

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 63 C+ +210 COOL 13 0.245 93.2 11.9% 25.7%vs RHP 407 18.0% 0.0% 17.9% 17

2 Max Muncy 63 C+ +390 COOL 14 0.238 90.4 10.9% 26.5%vs RHP 411 21.2% 14.3% 17.6% 46

3 Mookie Betts 50 C +525 · 57 0.177 90.1 8.2% 16.2%vs RHP 389 11.8% 15.4% 12.0% 39

4 Freddie Freeman 48 D +400 COOL 77 0.158 89.5 8.6% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.9% 7.7% 10.0% 28

5 Teoscar Hernandez 45 D +400 HOT 97 0.152 90.3 9.9% 13.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 32

6 Tommy Edman 44 D +575 · 109 0.141 88.1 7.0% 7.3%vs RHP 396 9.1% 15.4% 8.4% 39

7 Kyle Tucker 42 D +525 COOL 125 0.129 88.7 7.0% 10.8%vs RHP 391 7.4% 8.3% 7.9% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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