TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.38×

COL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 12 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+10 ↑

9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

+10 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +11

Best of game Paul Goldschmidt conv 23 · vs Sugano ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 56 · vs Warren → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 93

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C+ ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice +225 B ●●●○○

3 Jazz Chisholm — C ●●●○○

FADE Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 91

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +850 D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Cole Carrigg +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 25.7% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Sugano — 0.205 · 86.8 · 11.3% 22.2% 22.9% F B O C+ 61

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Warren +320 0.279 · 90.3 · 10.9% 20.0% 22.5% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Sugano Edge +225 0.264 · 92.0 · 13.1% 16.7% 25.7% F B O B 72

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.172 · 90.7 · 10.0% 20.0% 13.9% F B O C 54

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Warren Edge +390 0.250 · 89.5 · 8.6% 11.1% 18.6% F B O C 58

· NYY Aaron Judge vs Sugano +192 0.285 · 94.1 · 16.0% 0.0% 25.5% F B O B 72

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Sugano Edge +500 0.145 · 91.0 · 10.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Warren Edge +850 0.161 · 84.3 · 6.2% 100.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· COL Cole Carrigg HOT vs Warren Edge +625 0.186 · 87.1 · 6.5% 22.2% 15.0% F B O D 47

· COL Troy Johnston HOT vs Warren Edge — 0.116 · 89.7 · 4.2% 12.5% 8.1% F B O D 36

· NYY Austin Wells vs Sugano Edge +425 0.124 · 89.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 47

· COL Kyle Karros vs Warren +750 0.156 · 89.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 46

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Warren Edge +750 0.191 · 85.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 46

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Sugano Edge +425 0.148 · 88.9 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 47

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Sugano — 0.137 · 83.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Warren +700 0.121 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Will Warren — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Carrigg Rumfield Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Paul Goldschmidt — · 61

Hunter Goodman +320 · 66

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 12 mph slight_out 77°F open

+11

↑

11 mph · out

79°F

7:05p · peak

+10

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

8:05p

+10

↑

11 mph · out

75°F

9:05p

+10

↑

12 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:05p

+10

↑

12 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 77°F, wind 12 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 66 C+ +320 COOL 6 0.279 90.3 10.9% 38.0%vs RHP 412 23.9% 20.0% 22.5% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 58 C +390 · 27 0.250 89.5 8.6% 22.2%vs RHP 416 17.2% 11.1% 18.6% 26

3 Cole Carrigg 47 D +625 HOT 82 0.186 87.1 6.5% 13.3%vs RHP 402 7.7% 22.2% 15.0% 34

4 Jake Mccarthy 46 D +750 WARM 88 0.191 85.5 6.3% 15.4%vs RHP 415 10.5% 0.0% 13.3% 43

5 Kyle Karros 46 D +750 · 94 0.156 89.4 7.8% 20.0%vs RHP 416 10.4% 0.0% 13.9% 0

6 Tj Rumfield 45 D +850 HOT 99 0.161 84.3 6.2% 13.1%vs RHP 412 10.5% 100.0% 13.0% 34

7 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D +700 WARM 141 0.121 87.5 7.0% 13.3%vs RHP 409 7.4% 0.0% 9.2% 17

8 Troy Johnston 36 D — HOT 172 0.116 89.7 4.2% 4.1%vs RHP 411 2.0% 12.5% 8.1% 19

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 72 B +225 COOL 2 0.264 92.0 13.1% 31.3%vs RHP 395 23.5% 16.7% 25.7% 34

2 Aaron Judge 72 B +192 · 3 0.285 94.1 16.0% 34.3%vs RHP 404 22.6% 0.0% 25.5% 0

3 Paul Goldschmidt 61 C+ — WARM 18 0.205 86.8 11.3% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 22.2% 22.9% 19

4 Jazz Chisholm 54 C — COOL 40 0.172 90.7 10.0% 22.6%vs RHP 384 14.3% 20.0% 13.9% 23

5 Ryan Mcmahon 50 C +500 COOL 58 0.145 91.0 10.4% 18.5%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 9

6 Austin Wells 47 D +425 WARM 80 0.124 89.3 8.9% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.8% 0.0% 16.0% 20

7 Cody Bellinger 47 D +425 COOL 84 0.148 88.9 8.3% 11.6%vs RHP 378 8.8% 0.0% 10.3% 43

8 Jose Caballero 41 D — COOL 128 0.137 83.8 7.1% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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