TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.30×

LAA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 9 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 11 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:45p

+8 ↑

7:45p

+9 ↑

8:45p

+9 ↑

9:45p

+9 ↑

10:45p

the 8:45p window peaks +9

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 16 · vs Johnson ⟷ Zach Neto conv 14 · vs Bennett → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 84

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +500 C ●●○○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●○○○

3 Caleb Durbin +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 49

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto +350 D ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●○○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: Match 12.4% · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Johnson Edge +500 0.160 · 90.1 · 9.7% 18.2% 14.2% F B O C 50

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ COOL vs Johnson Edge +390 0.205 · 89.8 · 10.8% 15.4% 12.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Bennett Edge +350 0.190 · 89.6 · 9.2% 18.2% 10.6% F B O D 46

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Bennett — 0.147 · 88.6 · 8.0% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 38

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Bennett Edge +750 0.140 · 87.9 · 7.4% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 36

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Bennett Edge +400 0.179 · 89.9 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Johnson +750 0.133 · 83.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Johnson — 0.148 · 87.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jake Bennett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 11 mph out 74°F open

↑

11 mph · out

74°F

6:45p

↑

11 mph · out

73°F

7:45p

↑

12 mph · out

72°F

8:45p · peak

↑

12 mph · out

71°F

9:45p

↑

13 mph · out

69°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 74°F, wind 11 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 46 D +350 · 95 0.190 89.6 9.2% 15.8%vs LHP 404 16.1% 18.2% 10.6% 23

2 Mike Trout 44 D +400 COOL 108 0.179 89.9 10.7% 16.7%vs LHP 409 13.0% 0.0% 10.1% 28

3 Josh Lowe 38 D — WARM 159 0.147 88.6 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 394 10.0% 10.0% 6.6% 15

4 Vaughn Grissom 36 D +750 COOL 173 0.140 87.9 7.4% 3.7%vs LHP 391 9.0% 8.3% 6.5% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D — COOL 192 0.116 87.1 6.9% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% 12

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 55 C +390 COOL 36 0.205 89.8 10.8% 14.8%vs RHP 406 15.6% 15.4% 12.4% 35

2 Jarren Duran 50 C +500 WARM 61 0.160 90.1 9.7% 27.4%vs RHP 401 14.2% 18.2% 14.2% 32

3 Andruw Monasterio 43 D — COOL 121 0.148 87.8 8.1% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 7.2% 14

4 Caleb Durbin 36 D +750 COOL 171 0.133 83.4 5.2% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.1% 0.0% 8.4% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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