TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.02×

TEX @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph cross 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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best window is early — 2:10p at +0

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 40 · vs Anderson ⟷ Cal Raleigh conv 25 · vs Bradford → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kade Anderson LHP · SEA

leak 67

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +750 C ●●●●○

3 Corey Seager +390 C ●●●○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP · TEX

leak 45

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.72 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cal Raleigh +265 C ●●●●○

2 Dominic Canzone +500 C ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 29.3% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Anderson — 0.248 · 92.3 · 9.1% 50.0% 29.3% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Bradford Edge +265 0.193 · 89.9 · 12.2% 27.3% 22.7% F B O C 59

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Anderson Edge +750 0.180 · 89.0 · 6.8% 25.0% 20.7% F B O C 51

· TEX Corey Seager vs Anderson +390 0.190 · 91.6 · 10.3% 25.0% 15.0% F B O C 56

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Bradford +500 0.221 · 91.1 · 10.9% 18.2% 18.1% F B O C 58

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Bradford Edge +400 0.189 · 90.7 · 8.8% 16.7% 18.3% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger vs Anderson Edge +425 0.194 · 90.2 · 9.2% 9.1% 22.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Anderson Edge +525 0.191 · 88.9 · 6.7% 8.3% 12.7% F B O D 49

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Anderson — 0.132 · 87.9 · 6.2% 14.3% 6.5% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Anderson +575 0.154 · 92.3 · 8.4% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 47

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Bradford Edge +370 0.153 · 89.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 47

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Anderson — 0.043 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 23

· SEA Cole Young vs Bradford +850 0.136 · 88.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 41

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Bradford +850 0.123 · 87.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Bradford +750 0.095 · 87.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cody Bradford — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Duran Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson — · 64

Cal Raleigh +265 · 59

Ezequiel Duran +750 · 51

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph cross 74°F retractable

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 74°F, wind 5 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 64 C+ — WARM 9 0.248 92.3 9.1% 24.8% 396 22.9% 50.0% 29.3% 14

2 Corey Seager 56 C +390 · 33 0.190 91.6 10.3% 19.1%vs LHP 395 17.6% 25.0% 15.0% 34

3 Jake Burger 55 C +425 WARM 35 0.194 90.2 9.2% 31.0%vs LHP 402 16.2% 9.1% 22.6% 28

4 Ezequiel Duran 51 C +750 WARM 49 0.180 89.0 6.8% 16.0%vs LHP 397 13.7% 25.0% 20.7% 33

5 Wyatt Langford 49 D +525 COOL 69 0.191 88.9 6.7% 14.3%vs LHP 396 15.2% 8.3% 12.7% 29

6 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +575 COOL 86 0.154 92.3 8.4% 15.6%vs LHP 404 9.7% 8.3% 9.8% 35

7 Evan Carter 41 D — COOL 137 0.132 87.9 6.2% 0.0%vs LHP 380 7.7% 14.3% 6.5% 20

8 Nicky Lopez 23 D — COOL 215 0.043 84.3 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 7.9% 5

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.72 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 59 C +265 HOT 24 0.193 89.9 12.2% 26.9%vs LHP 383 16.2% 27.3% 22.7% 22

2 Dominic Canzone 58 C +500 · 28 0.221 91.1 10.9% 28.6%vs LHP 404 15.1% 18.2% 18.1% 32

3 Randy Arozarena 53 C +400 WARM 41 0.189 90.7 8.8% 23.3%vs LHP 386 15.0% 16.7% 18.3% 28

4 Julio Rodríguez 47 D +370 · 85 0.153 89.9 9.4% 19.5%vs LHP 404 14.8% 0.0% 9.8% 32

5 Cole Young 41 D +850 WARM 136 0.136 88.1 6.8% 9.1%vs LHP 383 10.9% 0.0% 6.9% 23

6 J.P. Crawford 37 D +850 COOL 162 0.123 87.9 7.5% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 24

7 Josh Naylor 35 D +750 COOL 181 0.095 87.1 6.6% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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