TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ KC

Neutral air · 1.03×

AZ @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 29 · vs Gallen ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 16 · vs IV → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Zac Gallen RHP · AZ

leak 67

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 6

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte — C ●●○○○

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 24.0% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Gallen Edge — 0.210 · 91.4 · 10.8% 33.3% 24.0% F B O C+ 63

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Gallen Edge — 0.145 · 89.7 · 9.2% 25.0% 14.9% F B O C 51

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs IV Edge — 0.195 · 90.1 · 7.9% 16.7% 15.2% F B O C 50

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Gallen Edge — 0.211 · 93.1 · 12.0% 10.0% 15.8% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs IV — 0.226 · 91.8 · 8.7% 8.3% 12.5% F B O C 53

· KC Bobby Witt vs Gallen — 0.168 · 92.3 · 11.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs IV Edge — 0.167 · 89.1 · 7.1% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 45

· AZ Tim Tawa vs IV Edge — 0.148 · 90.9 · 7.9% 16.7% 7.3% F B O D 44

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs IV Edge — 0.189 · 84.7 · 6.3% 7.7% 12.8% F B O D 45

· KC Nick Loftin vs Gallen — 0.145 · 87.1 · 6.8% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· KC Salvador Perez vs Gallen — 0.156 · 88.8 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· KC Michael Massey vs Gallen Edge — 0.161 · 89.7 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 46

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs IV Edge — 0.130 · 87.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Gallen Edge — 0.115 · 88.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 41

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs IV Edge — 0.114 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs IV Edge — 0.110 · 87.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Zac Gallen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Moreno Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Gallen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen — · 63

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph cross 76°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

6:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

74°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

8:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 76°F, wind 7 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 53 C — · 43 0.226 91.8 8.7% 15.6%vs LHP 402 12.8% 8.3% 12.5% 31

2 Ketel Marte 50 C — COOL 60 0.195 90.1 7.9% 32.1%vs LHP 408 15.2% 16.7% 15.2% 19

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D — COOL 100 0.189 84.7 6.3% 24.0%vs LHP 389 14.8% 7.7% 12.8% 35

4 Gabriel Moreno 45 D — · 101 0.167 89.1 7.1% 14.8%vs LHP 400 10.2% 16.7% 12.7% 32

5 Tim Tawa 44 D — · 113 0.148 90.9 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.6% 16.7% 7.3% 19

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 36 D — COOL 174 0.110 87.1 6.5% 0.0%vs LHP 415 3.8% 0.0% 6.1% 20

7 Ildemaro Vargas 34 D — COOL 184 0.130 87.4 4.4% 20.0%vs LHP 396 4.6% 0.0% 8.5% 36

8 Geraldo Perdomo 32 D — COOL 195 0.114 87.4 4.1% 3.7%vs LHP 383 6.2% 0.0% 6.6% 35

vs Zac Gallen · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 63 C+ — WARM 12 0.210 91.4 10.8% 20.0%vs RHP 399 16.4% 33.3% 24.0% 31

2 Jac Caglianone 60 C+ — COOL 22 0.211 93.1 12.0% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.4% 10.0% 15.8% 31

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 51 C — WARM 51 0.145 89.7 9.2% 13.9%vs RHP 396 11.5% 25.0% 14.9% 37

4 Bobby Witt 51 C — WARM 53 0.168 92.3 11.3% 16.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 41

5 Salvador Perez 47 D — WARM 79 0.156 88.8 10.5% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 41

6 Michael Massey 46 D — WARM 92 0.161 89.7 7.9% 9.9%vs RHP 399 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% 18

7 Nick Loftin 45 D — WARM 103 0.145 87.1 6.8% 11.8%vs RHP 397 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 32

8 Isaac Collins 41 D — COOL 135 0.115 88.4 7.5% 7.3%vs RHP 394 5.0% 0.0% 7.4% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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