TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.13×

STL @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:45p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph slight_out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

12:45p

+5 ↑

1:45p

+6 ↑

2:45p

+6 ↑

3:45p

+6 ↑

4:45p

the 2:45p window peaks +6

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 34 · vs Pallante ⟷ Nolan Gorman conv 15 · vs Tidwell → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 64

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●○○○

3 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 13

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Gorman +525 D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker +425 C ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 26.1% · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Pallante Edge +390 0.262 · 93.1 · 8.2% 42.9% 26.1% F B O C 57

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Tidwell +425 0.210 · 92.4 · 11.1% 7.7% 11.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman HOT vs Tidwell Edge +525 0.137 · 89.7 · 10.1% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 41

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Pallante Edge +575 0.186 · 92.4 · 7.7% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 43

· STL Alec Burleson vs Tidwell Edge +425 0.185 · 92.0 · 10.2% 7.7% 11.5% F B O D 46

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Pallante Edge +850 0.138 · 86.3 · 5.3% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 31

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Tidwell Edge +950 0.121 · 85.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn vs Tidwell +950 0.088 · 88.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 27

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Tidwell +625 0.138 · 89.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Pallante Edge — 0.126 · 87.5 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Tidwell — 0.112 · 86.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Blade Tidwell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andre Pallante — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gorman Devers Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Pallante fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +390 · 57

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph slight_out 91°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

88°F

12:45p

↑

7 mph · out

92°F

1:45p

↑

8 mph · out

93°F

2:45p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

92°F

3:45p

↑

8 mph · out

92°F

4:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 91°F, wind 6 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C +425 COOL 55 0.210 92.4 11.1% 26.0%vs RHP 406 17.3% 7.7% 11.5% 31

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +425 · 96 0.185 92.0 10.2% 21.4%vs RHP 406 14.4% 7.7% 11.5% 40

3 Nolan Gorman 41 D +525 HOT 139 0.137 89.7 10.1% 14.3%vs RHP 407 9.9% 16.7% 12.5% 25

4 Nathan Church 33 D +950 COOL 187 0.121 85.9 7.4% 13.8%vs RHP 386 7.8% 0.0% 7.4% 40

5 Ivan Herrera 32 D +625 · 189 0.138 89.3 7.2% 19.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 40

6 José Fermín 28 D — COOL 208 0.112 86.0 4.7% 6.2%vs RHP 390 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 35

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +950 · 212 0.088 88.2 5.8% 8.3%vs RHP 385 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% 0

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 57 C +390 HOT 31 0.262 93.1 8.2% 30.1%vs RHP 398 22.0% 42.9% 26.1% 37

2 Bryce Eldridge 43 D +575 · 122 0.186 92.4 7.7% 18.9%vs RHP 399 18.4% 16.7% 10.4% 33

3 Drew Gilbert 31 D +850 WARM 201 0.138 86.3 5.3% 16.7%vs RHP 394 6.5% 8.3% 7.5% 23

4 Jung Hoo Lee 26 D — WARM 213 0.126 87.5 3.6% 9.9%vs RHP 382 5.3% 0.0% 6.5% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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