TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.75×

NYM @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 11 mph in 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-13 ↑

6:40p

-12 ↑

7:40p

-13 ↑

8:40p

-13 ↑

9:40p

-13 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at -12

Best of game Juan Soto conv 27 · vs Junk ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Stock → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 69

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +320 C ●●●●○

2 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●●●○

3 Bo Bichette +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Stock RHP · NYM

leak 29

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.92 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +290 C ●●●●○

2 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 21.3% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Junk Edge +320 0.249 · 92.4 · 9.8% 33.3% 21.3% F B O C 55

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Stock Edge +290 0.226 · 92.5 · 9.6% 30.0% 20.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Junk Edge +400 0.192 · 90.9 · 7.9% 30.8% 17.6% F B O D 46

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Junk +850 0.135 · 89.5 · 6.9% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 35

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Stock +950 0.150 · 86.9 · 4.0% 15.4% 5.3% F B O D 31

· NYM Brett Baty vs Junk Edge +625 0.128 · 90.1 · 8.4% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 35

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Stock +400 0.238 · 91.2 · 10.0% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 44

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Junk +750 0.173 · 90.2 · 10.5% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 39

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Stock Edge +850 0.116 · 87.4 · 5.2% 9.1% 6.0% F B O D 29

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Stock +850 0.136 · 89.1 · 6.6% 7.7% 4.8% F B O D 32

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Stock Edge +500 0.184 · 90.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 42

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Junk Edge +575 0.165 · 89.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Junk Edge +750 0.140 · 88.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Junk +750 0.130 · 86.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Junk Edge +850 0.118 · 89.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Robert Stock — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Juan Soto +320 · 55

Kyle Stowers +290 · 51

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 11 mph in 79°F retractable

-13

↑

11 mph · in

84°F

6:40p

-12

↑

11 mph · in

83°F

7:40p · peak

-13

↑

12 mph · in

82°F

8:40p

-13

↑

12 mph · in

81°F

9:40p

-13

↑

13 mph · in

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.75× 79°F, wind 11 mph E (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 55 C +320 · 37 0.249 92.4 9.8% 31.7%vs RHP 400 20.8% 33.3% 21.3% 29

2 Francisco Lindor 46 D +400 · 93 0.192 90.9 7.9% 19.0%vs RHP 395 15.5% 30.8% 17.6% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 39 D +750 · 146 0.173 90.2 10.5% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 16

4 Jared Young 35 D +575 COOL 178 0.165 89.8 6.9% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.2% 0.0% 8.9% 26

5 Bo Bichette 35 D +850 WARM 179 0.135 89.5 6.9% 11.0%vs RHP 388 10.7% 16.7% 8.4% 32

6 Brett Baty 35 D +625 WARM 182 0.128 90.1 8.4% 12.5%vs RHP 393 7.3% 11.1% 7.3% 18

7 Carson Benge 34 D +750 COOL 185 0.140 88.7 7.0% 14.1%vs RHP 396 10.1% 0.0% 7.1% 32

8 Marcus Semien 32 D +750 COOL 194 0.130 86.6 6.5% 14.9%vs RHP 391 10.1% 0.0% 6.8% 36

9 A.J. Ewing 29 D +850 COOL 206 0.118 89.1 7.0% 12.5%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 33

vs Robert Stock · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.92 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 51 C +290 HOT 50 0.226 92.5 9.6% 25.0%vs RHP 400 15.0% 30.0% 20.6% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 44 D +400 COOL 107 0.238 91.2 10.0% 25.5%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 29

3 Owen Caissie 42 D +500 COOL 123 0.184 90.9 9.9% 26.0%vs RHP 398 13.1% 0.0% 10.1% 13

4 Otto Lopez 32 D +850 · 196 0.136 89.1 6.6% 9.1%vs RHP 402 6.4% 7.7% 4.8% 40

5 Javier Sanoja 31 D +950 · 199 0.150 86.9 4.0% 8.5%vs RHP 381 7.9% 15.4% 5.3% 43

6 Jakob Marsee 29 D +850 WARM 207 0.116 87.4 5.2% 11.4%vs RHP 382 7.8% 9.1% 6.0% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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